The Southern Baptist Convention has lost 2.3 million total members — or 14% of its membership nationwide — since its peak in 2006.
New annual data tracking key metrics for the nation’s largest non-Catholic Christian denomination was released last week, showing a 14th consecutive year of membership decline. That mirrors the trends of all U.S. denominations, most of whom have been shedding members for two decades or more.
Chart by Ryan Burge
One interesting comparison, however, is that between 2006 and 2019, the SBC lost more members than the United Methodist Church. Because the UMC was smaller to start with — 7.9 million members in 2016 — its percentage loss is slightly larger than that experienced by the SBC, 18% versus 14%.
Both denominations have experienced significant schisms, although the SBC’s biggest rupture occurred between 1979 and 2000, which was the culmination of the so-called “conservative resurgence” led by fundamentalists who said they would restore the SBC to health and growth. The UMC’s schism is still in process.
One potentially morbid reason for some of the 2020 losses in membership could be deaths from COVID-19. The SBC research doesn’t ask that question, but other national research shows an estimated 3,358,814 deaths occurred in the United States in 2020, an increase of 17.7% from the year before. Given that COVID killed older Americans at higher rates than younger Americans, and that the membership of SBC churches skews older, a correlation is possible even if undocumented.
The SBC reports its key metrics through a survey called the Annual Church Profile. Congregations complete the survey, which provides data for state Baptist conventions and the national body alike. It is coordinated by Lifeway Christian Resources, the SBC’s publishing arm which also includes a research unit.
The largest drop in a key indicator for 2020 was in baptisms, which to some extent would be explained by coronavirus closures and social-distancing restrictions.
The largest drop in a key indicator for 2020 was in baptisms, which to some extent would be explained by coronavirus closures and social-distancing restrictions.
SBC congregations reported baptizing 123,160 people in 2020, a 47.76% decline from the the prior year and the ninth straight year of decline. SBC pastors and leaders consider this to be one of the most important metrics of church and denominational health because of the Baptist emphasis on evangelism.
It should be no surprise, then, that coronavirus has altered the number of baptisms recorded in SBC churches for 2020, said Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research.
“Socially distant behavior is helpful for containing a pandemic, but it hindered meeting new people, inviting people to church, and helping them take a step of obedience to be baptized,” he said. “The additional outreach through online methods did not make a dent in the smaller number of opportunities to share the gospel in person, including fewer vacation Bible schools, live events, and weekly services to invite people to attend. The last year Southern Baptists saw this few people follow Christ for the first time was 1918 and 1919, when the influenza pandemic was sweeping the world.”
Another key metric with a notable decline is the number of church-type missions, important to the denomination’s strategies of evangelism and growth. Southern Baptists reported only 3,104 church-type missions in 2020, a decline of 504 or 13.97% from the prior year.
Southern Baptists reported only 3,104 church-type missions in 2020, a decline of 504 or 13.97% from the prior year.
The SBC North American Mission Board has made such a priority of church starting that it has revamped its entire organizational structure over the last decade. The former broadly focused missions agency now operates primary as a church-starting ministry. Yet the results continue to fall below expectations, despite tens of millions of dollars pumped into the effort.
NAMB President Kevin Ezell has stated a goal of starting 5,000 new congregations in the SBC by the end of 2025, including 600 new church plants annually, 200 replants, 100 new campuses and 350 new affiliations.
Overall, the number of churches cooperating with the SBC increased by 62 last year to 47,592, a 0.13% gain. The number of churches and missions combined is 50,696 congregations.
Membership in those congregations declined by 435,632 last year, down 3% to 14 million members. Membership in SBC congregations peaked at 16.3 million in 2006.
SBC churches collectively took in less money in 2020 than the prior year. Total church receipts as reported decreased 0.98% percent to $11.5 billion. Undesignated church receipts decreased by 0.72% percent to $9.5 billion.
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