In 2024, Donald Trump made significant inroads among young men compared with his previous campaigns. Young women, however, remained among the voters least likely to vote for Trump, resulting in a wider gender gap among young voters than among men and women nationally.
That Gen Z gender gap extends to their political orientation. Gallup shows that since 2000, women under 30 have grown far more liberal, both in terms of their political ideology and stances on political issues, setting them apart from young men and older women alike. The political views of young men, however, have not grown more conservative during that time; they have largely stayed steady, with Gen Z men largely skewing more moderate than conservative or liberal.
As the midterms approach, what will the Gen Z vote look like? Will a large gender gap emerge again between young women and men? How enthusiastic are young Americans about voting this year? And what issues will be driving their decisions? Let’s dive into these questions using the 2026 PRRI American Values Survey.
Voting in the midterms
To put current polling on young voters in context, it helps to look at how young Americans have voted in recent elections. Pew Research Center’s validated voter studies, long considered the gold standard for measuring vote choice, track how men and women ages 18 to 29 voted in every election from the 2018 midterms through the 2024 presidential race.
As Figure 1 shows, relatively few young voters backed Republicans in the 2018 or 2022 midterms or in the 2020 presidential race. In 2018, a midterm that, like this year’s, gave voters a chance to deliver a referendum on Trump’s performance, the GOP brand was moribund among young voters, at a time of energetic youth activism ranging from the March for Our Lives movement to the climate strikes.
In 2020, just 39% of young men and 32% of young women voted for Trump, although it is worth remembering that presidential and midterm electorates often differ considerably. Support for Republican House candidates rose in 2022 compared with 2018, but the GOP still won only about a third of young voters (31% of young men and 33% of young women).
PRRI’s 2026 American Values Survey finds that among likely voters, young women favor Democratic House candidates over Republicans by more than two to one (53% vs. 26%), with another 20% undecided or planning to vote for a third-party candidate. Young men also lean Democratic, although by a narrower margin (42% vs. 32%), with 26% undecided or choosing a third party.
While we can’t predict how those undecided voters may go, it does appear that a gender gap is emerging once again among Gen Z.
Voting excitement
While we have a sense of which way the Gen Z vote may go, what can we expect in terms of voter turnout? In other words, how excited is Gen Z about the midterm elections? And will that enthusiasm — or lack thereof — be gendered?
In the 2018 midterm elections, CIRCLE finds young voters (18 to 29) turned out at twice the rate they did in 2014, 28% vs. 14%. While still low, that 28% represents a historic turnout for younger voters over the past three decades. However, voter turnout among eligible voters in 2022 dropped to 23%.
The 2026 AVS finds that while Americans overall are not all that enthused about voting this election, excitement levels drop among Gen Z. Note, however, that Gen Z women express more enthusiasm about voting than Gen Z men, unlike men and women overall.
Views on Trump’s performance as president
A majority of Americans (61%) disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, compared with one-third who approve (35%). A gender gap has opened among Americans overall: 33% of American women approving of his job, compared with 38% of men. Among Gen Z, however, that gender gap disappears. Just 29% of Gen Z women and men approve of how Trump is handling his presidency.
Compared with last year’s American Values Survey, Gen Z women’s views of the president are unchanged, but approval among Gen Z men has fallen 7 points, from 36% to 29%.
Moreover, Gen Z women and men give Trump extremely poor rankings when it comes to his performance on the economy, unlike the gender gap that has emerged among American women and men overall. Where Gen Z women and men differ is on immigration, with 34% of men giving Trump favorable approval ratings for immigration compared with 28% of women.
It is notable on both indicators that younger Americans show the most unhappiness with Trump’s performance on two issues that help Trump defeat Kamala Harris in 2024.
Gen Z’s unhappiness with capitalism
Given Gen Z’s unhappiness with how the economy is performing, it is of little surprise that we find younger Americans are significantly more likely than older Americans to agree that capitalism is no longer working for average Americans and the country should consider adopting some aspects of socialism.
Yet here we find some gender differences among Gen Zers: Dissatisfaction with capitalism is far higher among Gen Z women (56%) compared with men (41%). As Gallup documents, young women have drifted leftward from young men on a range of policy issues, including the economy — as they have from other Americans overall. Yet young men appear more conflicted in their attitudes about capitalism.
It’s not just the economy, stupid
Young voters who backed Trump in 2024 touted his supposed economic acumen and his reputation for keeping the United States out of foreign conflicts. Yet Trump is suffering some of his worst polling on the war in Iran among younger Americans. More than four in 10 older Americans (42% of those ages 50 to 64 and 43% of those ages 65 and older) say the U.S. was justified in striking Iran, compared with one-third of those ages 30 to 49 (33%) and one-quarter of those ages 18 to 29 (26%). Only 23% of young women believe the war was justified, and young men are not much more supportive (29%), 11 points below American men nationally (40%).
No amount of red ball caps can salvage the MAGA brand with most Americans, especially not Americans under 30. Just 24% of young men and 20% of young women view the MAGA movement favorably.
Young women remain among the groups most dissatisfied with Donald Trump. Gen Z women voters are more than twice as likely to favor Democratic candidates for Congress; I anticipate that those who are undecided are unlikely to break toward the GOP. Gen Z men also favor Democrats by 10 points, which also does not auger well for Republicans this cycle, suggesting the GOP may lose much of the ground it gained with young men in the 2024 presidential election.
Gen Z men are unlikely to back Democrats at the same rates as young women. But the AVS makes clear that most young Americans believe the economy is headed in the wrong direction, do not think the military strikes against Iran were justified, and remain critical of the economic and political status quo.
The open question is turnout. Young voters are less excited about this election than older Americans, and young men are the least excited of all. If young people turn out in large numbers, Democrats will likely benefit on election night.
Melissa Deckman
Melissa Deckman serves as CEO of Public Religion Research Institute and is author of The Politics of Gen Z.
This column originally appeared on her Substack and is republished here with permission. Subscribe to her original columns there as well.
