WASHINGTON (ABP) — Heavy turnout among evangelical voters concerned with moral issues was widely credited with lifting President George W. Bush to re-election Nov. 2, confounding the conventional wisdom about large-turnout elections.
Exit polls suggest “moral values” issues were one of voters' most significant concerns, particularly in some hotly contested battleground states. Bush won both the popular vote and electoral vote on a day when a record 120 million people — about 60 percent of registered voters — cast ballots nationwide.
Historically, large turnouts in national elections have tended to favor Democrats, who have an advantage over Republicans in the number of voters registered. But some exit polls suggest an increased number of conservative religious voters offset heavy turnout within the Democratic base.
Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic nominee, conceded victory to Bush on the afternoon of Nov. 3 after an election night that stretched into the following morning due to uncertainty over the outcome of the election in the crucial state of Ohio.
Speaking to campaign workers and supporters in Boston's historic Faneuil Hall, Kerry described his concession phone call to President Bush earlier in the day. “We had a good conversation, and we talked about the danger of division in our country and the need — the desperate need — for unity, for finding the common ground, coming together,” he said.
“Today I hope that we can begin the healing. In America, it is vital that every vote count, and that every vote be counted. But the outcome should be decided by voters, not a protracted legal process,” Kerry continued.
In a gracious and subdued victory speech about an hour later, President Bush told supporters in a Washington federal building that he was honored to win the largest popular vote in American history. “America has spoken, and I'm humbled by the trust and the confidence of my fellow citizens,” he said.
He also spoke to Kerry supporters, pledging to work with them in a nation deeply divided along geographic, racial and ideological lines. “Reaching these goals will require the broad support of Americans,” he said. “So today, I want to speak to every person who voted for my opponent. To make this nation stronger and better, I will need your support and I will work to earn it. I will do all I can do to deserve your trust. A new term is a new opportunity to reach out to the whole nation. We have one country, one Constitution, and one future that binds us.”
But the nation may be more divided than ever. An MSNBC exit poll of voters said 23 percent of the electorate nationwide described themselves as white, evangelical or “born-again,” Christians. Of those, 21 percent voted for Kerry, while 78 percent voted for Bush.
In the same poll, 22 percent of voters surveyed cited “moral values” as the single most important issue in deciding their vote — higher than the percentages who cited the economy (20 percent), terrorism (19 percent) or the war in Iraq (15 percent). Of those, 80 percent voted for Bush, while only 18 percent voted for Kerry. Other exit polls showed similar figures.
In Ohio — whose 20 electoral votes put Bush over the top — the numbers were more pronounced. Twenty-five percent of Ohioans in the same survey described themselves as white evangelicals, and they voted for Bush over Kerry by a 76-to-24 percent margin. A slightly larger proportion of Ohio voters (24 percent) chose the economy as their most important issue, but it was closely followed by the 23 percent who cited moral values. Those voters supported Bush over Kerry by an 85-to-14 percent margin.
“The faith factor was the difference in this election,” said Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission. “… Because people of faith voted their values, their beliefs and their convictions, we have for the first time since 1988 a president who won a majority of the popular vote,” Land said.
State constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage passed in all 11 states where they were on the ballot, including Ohio. Matt Daniels, president of the anti-gay-marriage Alliance for Marriage, said voters turning out to vote in favor of those amendments probably helped Bush win.
“We've got the president quite arguably having won the election because of this issue,” Daniels said. “What we have is a democratic tidal wave in the states in favor of marriage.”
Daniels cited a CNN exit poll that showed 16 percent of African-American voters in Ohio voted for Bush — up almost 7 percent from Bush's figure in the 2000 election. Proponents of both federal and state amendments banning same-sex marriage have worked heavily to gain support among African-American churches.
However, the head of an organization that advocates for church-state separation and religious freedom said the poll and election results don't vindicate the Religious Right's contention that a candidate's opposition to gay rights and abortion rights can help them win national elections.
“This is no Religious Right mandate to change the Constitution or to dramatically change the direction of the country,” said Barry Lynn, of the Washington-based Americans United for Separation of Church and State. “I really don't believe that that was the message of last night.”
Lynn said the percentages of voters citing “moral values” as their primary concern was, in reality, little different than in previous elections. He also noted that voters supported same-sex marriage bans even in states — such as Michigan and Oregon — that went for Kerry.
While much opposition to same-sex marriage comes from religious voters, Lynn said, “it is not solely a religious issue. I think the votes are too diffuse to draw some of the conclusions that the Religious Right is already.”
Nonetheless, Lynn said, “The Religious Right is poised for turning the cultural war nuclear. There's no doubt about it.”
Florida Presbyterian minister James Kennedy, a prominent Religious Right leader, illustrated Lynn's point in a press release reacting to the election.
“Despite the conventional political wisdom that moral concerns are a drag on a political ticket, it was values that energized voters, lifted turnout among evangelicals and Catholics, and led to substantial GOP pickups in the House and Senate,” Kennedy said. “The voters have delivered a moral mandate.”
But, he added, Bush will have to pay back his conservative religious supporters for that victory. “Now that values voters have delivered for George Bush, he must deliver for their values,” he said. “The defense of innocent unborn human life, the protection of marriage, and the nomination and confirmation of federal judges who will interpret the Constitution — not make law from the bench — must be first priorities come January.”
But Lynn said the make-up of the Senate — which continues to have a sizable minority of Democrats and a handful of moderate Republicans — will make major achievements by the Religious Right less likely.
“As long as you've got 45 members of the Senate who really can't be fairly characterized as Religious Right followers, it will be fairly difficult to get some of this Religious Right stuff through,” he said. “The idea that, you know, the earth has stopped rotating and that Jerry Falwell is now the chief priest of America — it's just not true.”
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