When Donald Trump won reelection last week, exit polls show he was propelled to victory by gains in a wide swath of demographic groups and buffered, once more, by strong support from Christian voters.
In fact, Trump made gains in nearly every category of self-identified Christians running against Kamala Harris compared to his run in 2020 against Joe Biden. He even expanded his support among white “born-again” and evangelical Christians, a group that has overwhelmingly supported him in all three of his presidential campaigns.
According to exit polling data from NBC, Trump expanded his margins for Christians identifying as “Protestant or other Christian” and Catholic. Of voters identifying as “Protestant or other Christian,” 63% went for Trump and 36% went for Harris. That’s a small bump from 2020, when Trump got 60% of the “Protestant or other Christian” vote and Biden got 39%.
Trump made a bigger jump with Catholic voters against Harris, who is a Baptist. Exit polling shows Catholic voters broke for Trump by 58% to 40% for Harris. That’s a major shift from 2020 when Biden, who is Catholic, won Catholic voters 52% to 47%.
White Christians
A majority of white Christians supported Trump in 2024, just as they did in 2020. White Christians identifying as “Protestant and other Christian” went for Trump 72% to 26%; in 2020 they supported Trump by 72% to 27%. White Catholics supported the Republican ticket 61% to 35% in 2024. That’s another significant shift from 2020, when Trump won white Catholic voters 56% to 44%.
Once again, Trump received his most robust support from those identifying as white born-again or evangelical Christian. In 2024, white born-again and evangelical Christians made up 27% of the electorate and voted for Trump 82% to 17% for Harris. White born-again and evangelical Christians made up 28% of the electorate in 2020 and backed Trump 76% to 24% for Biden.
The only religious groups with a plurality supporting the Democratic ticket were Jewish voters and those identifying as “something else.” Jewish voters backed Harris 78% to 22% for Trump, although they only made up 2% of the electorate. Those identifying as “something else” made up 10% of the electorate and backed the vice president 59% to 34%. That’s down from 2020, when those who said they were “something else” backed Biden 69% to 29%, although they were a smaller share of the electorate at just 4%. NBC exit polling did not have enough data for Jewish voters in 2020 to compare with this year’s polling.
If there’s one group that backed Harris as strongly as white born-again/evangelical Christians backed Trump, it’s the “nones” — those who claim no religious identity at all. They backed Biden solidly in 2020, 65% to 31%, and supported Harris even more, 71% to 26%.
While Trump made gains in Christian voters across the board, the 2024 electorate appears to have been less Christian overall than in 2020. According to the exit polls, “Protestant and other Christian” voters dropped to 42% of voters, down from 43% in 2020. The Catholic vote dropped to 22%, down from 25% in 2020.
Although white born-again/evangelical Christian support for Trump grew, that bloc dropped to 27% of voters, down from 28% in 2020. Those saying they were not white born-again/evangelical Christians climbed to 78% of voters, up from 71% in 2020.
Religious identification among white voters appears to have remained steady from 2020 to 2024. White voters identifying as “Protestant or other Christian” were down 30% compared to 31% in 2020. The white Catholic vote dropped to 15% compared to 17% in 2020. Those identifying as “something else” went up one point, from 4% in 2020 to 5% in 2024. The biggest shift came in white voters claiming no religious affiliation — 17% compared to 14% in 2020.
Meanwhile, those identifying as “something else” and “none” in religious affiliation made significant jumps in their vote share. Voters identifying as “something else” moved up from 4% in 2020 to 10% in 2024, while the “nones” spiked 10 points — from 14% in 2020 to 24% in 2024.
Influence of abortion views
Another interesting shift between the 2020 and 2024 presidential election is the issue of abortion, which has long been an animating issue for some Christian voters, especially among evangelical and born-again Christian voters. In 2020, voters who said abortion should be legal made up 51% of the electorate, based on NBC exit polling, and those who said it should be illegal were 42%. Of those who said it should be legal, 74% went for Biden and 24% voted for Trump. Those who said abortion should be illegal voted for Trump by 76% and Biden 23%.
Voters who said abortion should be legal went for Harris, 68% to 29%.
In 2024, after abortion rights were struck down nationally with the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization Supreme Court decision, voters who said abortion should be legal shot up to 65% and voters who said it should be illegal dropped to 31%. Voters who said abortion should be legal went for Harris, 68% to 29%. Those who said it should be illegal backed Trump 91% to 8% for Harris.
More analysis to come
Exit polling provides only a quick snapshot of the identities, demographics, affiliations, beliefs and feelings of voters after they voted. Much more in-depth analysis of who voters are, what they believe and how they voted will be provided later by groups like Pew Research Center and Gallup. For example, NBC exit polling did not break out Christian voters from other racial groups as it did white Christian voters. Later data could show more layers and nuances to the faith coalition backing Democrats and the one backing the Republican ticket.
Although Biden made significant inroads for Democrats with Christian voters in 2020, there were signs even before he dropped out of the race and Harris became the candidate that the fragile faith coalition was fracturing.
In an April 2024 Pew Research Center survey, Protestant voter support for Biden remained steady, with 38% saying they’d vote for the president. However, Catholic support for Biden was down to 43%. Black Protestants, who voted for Biden by 91% in 2020 according to Pew, were down to an alarming 77% who said they’d vote for the president in the April survey.
Related articles:
Two young leaders exemplify the alarm over Trump
Voters in three states reject school vouchers
American Jews favored Harris over Trump, don’t support Netanyahu either