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In Indiana, N.C. primaries, Obama cuts into Clinton’s Catholic lead

NewsABPnews  |  May 7, 2008

WASHINGTON (ABP) — Echoing his successes in earlier contests, Barack Obama cut into the recent advantage Hillary Clinton had built among Roman Catholics during the Indiana and North Carolina Democratic presidential primaries May 6.

Catholics in Indiana and North Carolina still supported the New York senator over her Illinois colleague, according to exit polls. But the margin by which he lost the Catholic vote — 61-39 percent in Indiana and 51-48 percent in North Carolina — was much smaller than the 40-point margin by which Catholics favored her in the crucial Pennsylvania primary two weeks prior. Clinton won that contest by 10 percentage points.

In Indiana, Catholics made up 19 percent of all Democratic voters — a crucial voting bloc in a state in which Clinton barely edged Obama among the overall electorate.

But they made up only 8 percent of Democratic primary voters in overwhelmingly Protestant North Carolina. Obama won that state's primary handily.

A large percentage of primary voters — about a third in each state — identified themselves as Christians but not as Catholics, Protestants or Mormons. As in several earlier states, they voted overwhelmingly for Obama in North Carolina and by a 10-point margin in Indiana.

Among Democratic voters in both states who did not identify with any religious group, Obama beat Clinton soundly — by 16 points in Indiana and 40 points in North Carolina. The religiously unaffiliated made up just over a tenth of voters in each state.

In the Hoosier State, Clinton and Obama ran fairly even among all categories of voters as measured by religious attendance. But, as in many earlier contests, Obama had advantages with both the most religious and the least religious as gauged by church attendance.

Voters who said they attend religious services more often than weekly favored him over his rival by 10 points, 55-45 percent. They made up 13 percent of Indiana Democratic primary voters.

But Indiana Democrats who said they worship once a week, but not more often, favored Clinton by a 6-point margin, 53-47 percent. They made up 26 percent of the state's Democratic voters.

Clinton, meanwhile, had a 10-point edge among voters who said they only attend services a few times a year. And Obama — as he has in the past — was preferred by voters who never go to church or synagogue. His margin among non-attenders in Indiana — only four points — was lower than in other states.

Unlike in Pennsylvania and Ohio contests, frequency of Mass attendance among Catholics seemed to have little effect on candidate preference. Clinton's margins among the most frequent Catholic churchgoers in those states — both rich and blue-collar voters — were even higher than her overall Catholic advantage. But in Indiana, which also has a large population of working-class Catholics, the most frequent Mass-goers favored Clinton by a margin similar to that of their less-faithful members.

In North Carolina, meanwhile, Obama did dramatically better (69-29 percent) than Clinton among the 13 percent of primary voters who listed no religious affiliation. However, his support among all voters who said they never attended religious services was only slightly off his overall margin in the state. Those voters made up12 percent of the Democratic electorate.

Clinton maintained an advantage among the most frequent self-described Protestant churchgoers in the Tar Heel State, but those figures did not count the high percentage of voters who failed to identify themselves as Catholic or Protestant. In North Carolina — as in other pro-Obama states where exit polls showed high percentages of such non-identifying Christians — a significant portion of such voters may be members of Baptist, Pentecostal or non-denominational congregations that don't consider themselves Protestant.

The North Carolina Catholic vote, according to the exit polls, was not statistically significant enough to sub-divide it by frequency of Mass attendance.

In both states, the Democratic primaries drew large numbers of people who attend services weekly or more often. They made up 40 percent of the vote in Indiana, and half of Democrats in North Carolina.

-30-

Read more:

Catholics, other religious voters propel Clinton to victory in Pa. (4/23)

Religious voters in ‘Potomac Primary' boost Obama, protest McCain (2/13)

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