By Jim Denison
Name this country: the world’s strongest military; its currency the global standard; the highest education rate per capita in the world; the global center of commerce and industry. The answer is Great Britain, in 1900.
A growing chorus of geopolitical analysts is wondering if England’s present is America’s future. A new addition to the debate is a troubling essay in a recent issue of The American Interest journal. In “The Vulnerability of Peripheries,” A. Wes Mitchell and Jakub Grygiel assert that America’s global superpower status is being tested today in unique ways.
Russia, Iran and China have aspirations which rival ours. America’s financial crisis, constraints on our defense budget and discontent with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are viewed opportunistically by them. Now they are probing the strength of our military alliances in vital regions around the world.
The most striking example is Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia. America has since canceled agreements to place missile defense installations in the Czech Republic and Poland. Now Poland, our regional ally, is making a major push to reengage with Russia.
China is following suit. In 2009, Chinese vessels harassed U.S. ships on five separate occasions. Last July, a Chinese military spokesman asserted that his country had “indisputable sovereignty” over the South China Sea. And Beijing’s continued reluctance to pressure North Korea could have global significance.
Iran has increased its anti-American rhetoric in recent years. It continues to pursue nuclear capabilities, has armed proxies in Iraq and delivered missiles through Syria to Hezbollah. Now it is reportedly seeking to construct a missile installation in Venezuela within striking distance of the United States.
In the face of these growing threats, the authors conclude: “The ultimate objective of U.S. policy must be to disprove the growing belief in precipitous U.S. decline among America’s rivals and allies alike before it accumulates into a cascade of self-fulfilling behaviors.”
By contrast, George Friedman believes that America will continue our superpower status across the 21st century. In his bestselling The Next 100 Years, he claims that the Russian economy, built largely on oil and gas exports, will decline as the world develops alternative energy sources. He predicts that conflicts in China between her prosperous eastern coast and rural interior will prevent her rise to superpower status. And he believes that anti-American regimes in Iran and other Middle East countries will be supplanted by pro-democracy movements.
Unlike other nations, America dominates her continent without fear of invasion or competition. We are the only country in history to control all the world’s oceans, the basis for our unquestioned military superiority. Friedman believes that our engagement in Iraq and Afghanistan will prevent radical Muslims from forming a regional power to threaten our status. He predicts that we will create new forms of energy, countering the effects of global climate change. And he thinks we will dominate space, strengthening our military defense and global power.
An America in retreat or a superpower in continued ascent — which scenario is more likely? I take a third view. Millennia after America, Russia, China and Iran have passed from the stage of history, eternity will only have begun.
C. S. Lewis was right: you have never met a mortal. God redeems all he allows and is working to use the challenges and opportunities of these days to draw eternal souls to himself.
Lewis explains:
“The settled happiness and security which we all desire, God withholds from us by the very nature of the world: but joy, pleasure, and merriment He has scattered broadcast. We are never safe, but we have plenty of fun, and some ecstasy. It is not hard to see why. The security we crave would teach us to rest our hearts in this world and oppose an obstacle to our return to God: a few moments of happy love, a landscape, a symphony, a merry meeting with our friends, a bath or a football match, have no such tendency. Our Father refreshes us on the journey with some pleasant inns, but will not encourage us to mistake them for home.”
You and I have little control over the future of our nation, but we alone determine whether we will fulfill God’s eternal purpose for us. Choose wisely.