Do you find yourself wondering why so many strange political ideas that have little public appeal are coming forth? Normally, politicians stay away from unpopular proposals. For what reasons are these ideas surfacing now?
Here are examples:
- Mass deportation of undocumented immigrants requiring a disruption of the nation unprecedented in size and feasibility.
- Virtual demonization of immigrants in a nation made up predominantly of immigrants and their descendants.
- Opposition to diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI, programs put in place by schools and businesses due, in part, to the declining under-18 white population that began in 2000.
- Disparagement of “childless” citizens.
- Proposals for families with children to have more say in voting and proposals for people without children to pay more in taxes.
The oft-quoted “demography is destiny” comes to mind as we consider how the future in the United States must appear for various political groups. It all hinges on the constituencies upon which they depend for support and what the future holds for those demographic groups.
For the first time since the original census in 1790, white U.S. population declined. All population growth in the last decade came from people of color.
Three reports may explain the inordinate anxiety leading to desperate proposals.
The stage was set when the 2020 U.S. Census Report circulated three years ago. It showed:
- Population stagnation. Population growth in the last 10 years was the second-lowest in the nation’s history.
- Greater racial diversity. In 2011, for the first time in the history of the country, more babies of color than white babies were born in a year.
- White population decline. For the first time since the original census in 1790, the white population declined. All population growth in the last decade came from people of color.
Then in July, the updated census estimates for the first three years after the 2020 Census came out. Demographer William H. Frey analyzed the findings in a Brookings Institution report. He pointed out the trends from the previous decade continued in the last three years.
These include data for the period of April 2020 to July 2023:
- The white population declined by 2.1 million.
- Natural decrease — more deaths than births — contributed most to the white population decline.
- The Hispanic population grew by 3.2 million, or 91 percent of the 3.4 million total population gain.
- Georgia, a top-five fastest-growing state, lost white residents, with all gains coming from people of color.
- Hispanic and Asian populations grew in all but one state for each group.
- The Black population grew in 37 states.
- Even with lower levels of immigration, the nation will continue to become more diverse.
- With a “minority white” youth population, the nation’s workforce is dependent on the education and development of the growing diverse population.
The Pew Research Center just issued its third report about the likelihood of people in the United States having children.
Its findings include:
- The U.S. fertility rate reached a historic low in 2023.
- The share of U.S. adults younger than 50 without children who say they are unlikely ever to have children rose 10 percentage points between 2018 and 2023, from 37% to 47%.
Given the demographic directions of the United States, those in political life who have depended on a nation of white people for their support are understandably anxious. During periods of racial progress, whether in rights or numbers, there has been a subsequent reaction among the white population. We are solidly in one of those times now. The nation is changing, especially in the last generation.
The push for Christian nationalism features race as a key motivator.
The emergence of the Religious Right was rooted in race, as historian Randall Balmer has amply documented. The push for Christian nationalism features race as a key motivator, as sociologists Andrew L. Whitehead and Samuel L. Perry have demonstrated. We also know from the work of political scientist Robert A. Pape that, of the Jan. 6 rioters, more came from Biden-voting counties than Trump-voting counties — with the key characteristic being those counties lost much of their non-Hispanic white population.
Racial change is hard in our country. Sometimes places talk about a “tipping point” where an increase in the minority populations will cause the majority population to leave the community or the schools. While this is a complex subject and does not function in the same way in all places, evidence of such majority resistance still remains.
But what happens when that community is your nation?
We like to think we could never behave in such a way. We have learned sadly in recent history that normally “good” people can respond to threatening change in tragic ways.
A veteran of many struggles against racism and discrimination puts it well: “People everywhere react in similar ways when change comes too close.”
Lovett H. Weems Jr. is distinguished professor of church leadership emeritus at Wesley Theological Seminary in Washington, D.C., and senior consultant at its Lewis Center for Church Leadership. His most recent book (with Doug Powe) is Sustaining While Disrupting: The Challenge of Congregational Innovation.
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