WASHINGTON (ABP) — In the March 4 election contests, Hillary Clinton reestablished her previous support among Catholic Democrats while continued evangelical support wasn't enough to keep Mike Huckabee in the GOP race.
The upshot of religious voters' effect in the elections may be a continuing racial and religious divide on the Democratic side and a continued lack of enthusiasm for the party's presumptive nominee among Republican evangelicals.
Exit-poll data show that the New York senator and former first lady returned to her previous strong support from Catholics in the four states that voted — Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. Her rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, had begun to cut into that bloc with a string of wins between the Feb. 5 “Super Tuesday” states and the March 4 contest.
Obama had managed to erase Clinton's advantage among Catholics — or whittle it down to insignificant amounts — in sates like Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin.
But those gains seemed to be reversed in the March 4 primaries. In Texas — the biggest prize of the night — Clinton walloped Obama among Catholics by a 65-33 percent margin. Among Protestants, the split was even at 49-49 percent, more reflective of the overall picture of a state that Clinton won by less than three percentage points.
Clinton was likely helped by her overwhelming support among the state's significant Latino population, who are mostly Catholic. Catholics make up 33 percent of Texas' Democratic voters.
In Ohio, Clinton's margin among Catholics was similar, at 63-36 percent. Catholics make up 23 percent of the Democratic electorate in that state. Among the overall population, she beat Obama more handily in Ohio than in Texas.
In both states, when voters' preferences were sorted by how often they attend religious services, the Democratic candidates tended to be close in most attendance categories. However, there were two significant exceptions.
In Texas, the most regular worshipers — those who said they attend church more than once a week — supported Obama over Clinton 54-43 percent. That is in line with most previous states, where the most frequent church attendees have tended to favor Obama over his rival.
But in Ohio, Clinton beat Obama by 21 points among those who said they attend church only “a few times a year.” That category, at 31 percent, is the largest worship-based grouping among the state's Democratic voters.
On the Republican side, Arizona Sen. John McCain clinched his party's nomination by winning Texas. In response, Huckabee — the former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister — withdrew from the contest.
“It's now important that we turn our attention not to what could have been or what we wanted to have been, but what now must be — and that is a united party,” Huckabee said in his concession speech.
But continuing ideological and stylistic fractures in the party were evident from the returns and the exit-poll results. In both states, even though for weeks it has been clear that it is mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win enough delegates to contend for the party's nomination, he still won at least 31 percent of the vote.
In Texas and Ohio, Huckabee beat McCain by, respectively, 7 and 8 percentage points among GOP voters who described themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians. He also beat the senator in both states among voters who said the most important factor in determining their vote is supporting a candidate who shares their values. And, in both states, Huckabee won among the most frequent church attendees.
But McCain won Catholics by significant margins in both states. In Ohio, he beat Huckabee among Catholics by a significantly larger margin than he did in the general population.
In Texas, where McCain was criticized for courting the endorsement of a prominent evangelical pastor many consider virulently anti-Catholic, he nonetheless won Catholics 59-25 percent.
The endorsement by John Hagee, a prominent television preacher and Religious Right leader, may prove crucial for McCain. The Arizonan has had an uneasy relationship with many conservative evangelical opinion leaders regarding issues ranging from his stance on embryonic stem-cell research to passing an anti-gay-marriage amendment for the federal Constitution.
McCain was raised as an Episcopalian, but he regularly attends a Southern Baptist church when he is home in Phoenix.
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Read more:
Catholics, others denounce McCain for courting Hagee (3/4/2008)
Religious voters in ‘Potomac Primary' boost Obama, protest McCain (2/13/2008)