By Jim Denison
Since January, we have watched the wildfires of change sweep across the Arab world. What will be the result of this pro-democracy movement in coming months and years? What lessons for our churches can we learn from the so-called “Arab Spring”?
Francis Fukuyama (Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard) is one of the best-known political theorists of our day, with appointments at both Johns Hopkins and Stanford University. In “Political Order in Egypt,” an article in the current edition of The American Interest journal, he explains the revolutions in the Arab world in the most cohesive and compelling way I have discovered.
Fukuyama argues that Samuel Huntington’s comprehensive theory of social transformation is “singularly relevant” to events currently unfolding in the Middle East. According to Huntington (1927-2008), political instability results when increased levels of economic and social development conflict with political systems which repress this newly educated and empowered populace. Attacks against the existing political order are seldom birthed by the poor. Rather, they are led by a rising middle class frustrated by a lack of financial and political opportunity.
The uprising in Egypt illustrates Huntington’s analysis perfectly. Between 1990 and 2010, Egypt’s Human Development Index (a United Nations composite measure of income, health and education) rose 28 percent. Tens of thousands of young adults graduated from colleges. But they had no pathway to economic or political advancement, hindered by a small group of insiders who monopolized financial and organizational power. With the advent of social media, they were able to communicate with each other and organize a movement which is changing the Arab world.
What will be the eventual result of their revolution?
Huntington advocated the promotion of economic and social development followed by democratic reforms. If an authoritarian nation transitions to democracy before it develops political parties, labor unions, and other structural organizations, chaos will likely result (see Russia and Iraq). If it fosters economic progress without eventual democratic opportunity, stagnation and frustration will result (see Arab authoritarian regimes). But if a nation engages in financial reforms and development, followed by a gradual openness to democracy, positive transition can be effective and sustained (see Taiwan and South Korea).
Will the “Arab Spring” produce nations which look more like Russia or South Korea? The answer depends on the degree to which threatened regimes and military rulers now in place work to foster the underpinnings of democracy as soon as possible. Holding elections in Egypt without organized political parties, for instance, will advance the interests of the Muslim Brotherhood but may not produce a genuine democracy (see Hamas in the Gaza Strip).
What does the Fukuyama/Huntington analysis say to Christian leaders in our nation? I find remarkable parallels between events in the Arab world and trends in the American church.
Both cultures have experienced a dramatic educational escalation. The growth of universities in the Arab world, largely funded by petrodollars, is well documented. Christian education has seen a similar acceleration as the Internet, media ministries and parachurch organizations have made theological resources available to more people than ever before.
For example, gone is the day when a person needed a seminary education to be conversant with “Reformed” theology — John Piper has made Calvinism popular among college students on an unprecedented level. More churches than ever before are employing staff from within their congregations, supplying them with educational resources through seminars, conferences, and online courses.
The bad news is that if churches and denominations do not find pathways to engagement for Christians who no longer respect the “clergy/laity” distinction, they will find themselves increasingly irrelevant to the growing Christian movement. The good news is that when we “prepare God’s people for works of service” (Ephesians 4:12) we return to the New Testament model. As the first Christians “turned the world upside down” (Acts 17:6, KJV), so will we.