Donald Trump’s lies about election fraud have had a corrosive effect not only on Republican voters but especially on white evangelical voters who now distrust the U.S. election system.
New data from Gallup show a record-high 56-point gap between Democrats and Republicans when asked if they are confident votes for president this year will be accurately cast and counted.
Trump has claimed without evidence — and despite evidence to the contrary — that the 2020 election was stolen from him. That lie has been bought and amplified by many of his staunchest supporters, which includes white evangelical Christians.
The AP VoteCast survey found 81% of white evangelical Protestant voters cast ballots for Trump in 2020, compared with 18% who voted for Joe Biden. Edison exit polls estimated 76% of white evangelicals voted for Trump and 24% for Biden.
Evangelical leaders feature prominently among those who worked to overturn the 2020 election results or to deny their validity. Nearly four years later, white evangelicals also are at the forefront of efforts to ensure “voter integrity” that critics say are unnecessary and overdrawn.
That message has permeated the Republican and evangelical base, according to Gallup’s new data.
Democrats have become more confident (84%) in the results of national elections while Republicans (28%) have been less trusting, the data show.
The shift in Republican attitudes about elections corresponds to the rise of Trump as the Republican standard bearer, Gallup reports. “Republicans’ faith in the accuracy of the election results nationwide has sunk 16 points since the 2020 election, now registering 28%. This follows an 11-point decline to 44% in 2020 from 55% in 2016, the last time a majority of Republicans were confident.”
Meanwhile, Democrats’ confidence in the presidential vote increased from 57% in 2008 to 85% in 2016 and has since remained high. More than half of independents also have consistently seen the vote count as accurate.
The percentage of Americans saying they are “not at all confident” in the vote has climbed from 6% in 2004 to 19% today.
One notable wrinkle is that Americans are more positive about the integrity of the vote at their own polling place than they are about the nationwide vote. Gallup found 76% say they are very or somewhat confident votes will be accurately cast and counted in their own precincts. And the partisan difference on this question is narrower, with 90% of Democrats, 71% of independents and 70% of Republicans expressing confidence.
“The 2024 election features a profound difference in how partisans view the integrity of the nation’s voting process,” a Gallup report notes. “Democrats largely trust it and, therefore, worry the election could end as it did in 2020, with Trump disputing the outcome. Republicans, on the other hand, don’t trust the process and are wary of voter fraud, thus potentially justifying such a challenge in their eyes.”