With every announcement of a cabinet-level nomination that seems more shocking than the last, Americans who are not on the Trump train are struggling to understand how many of the president-elect’s actions will be agreeable to his base and whether any of them will face opposition.
Polling by Pew Research conducted a month before the election may shed some light on that question in broad terms.
In October, Pew asked Trump voters what they wanted him to do if elected, what their top issues were. This data, combined with other polling results from 2024, paints an outline of key themes where Trump is likely to fulfill the wishes of his voting base, which is heavily populated by white evangelical Christians.
“Supporters saw Trump as a change candidate,” a Pew report explains. “In an October survey, most of his supporters (86%) said he would change Washington for the better, while only 12% said he wouldn’t change things much. Supporters of Kamala Harris saw Trump as likely to change things, too, but 92% said he would change things for the worse.”
The two top areas they want Trump to bring about change are in immigration and the economy. And the economy topped immigration concerns, despite Trump talking more on the campaign trail about immigration.
In a September Pew survey, 93% of Trump voters said the economy was very important to their vote. By comparison, 82% said immigration was very important to their vote.
However, the urgency of addressing immigration has increased 21 points from the last presidential election cycle in 2020, when 61% of Trump supporters rated it as very important to them.
Not surprisingly, issues that are considered top priority for Democrats were of little interest to Trump voters: Only 11% said climate change is very important, 18% said racial and ethnic inequality is very important, and 35% said abortion is very important.
That last data point may be why Trump suddenly softened his rhetoric about abortion, even though that has been a top priority for many conservative evangelicals.
Other hot-button culture war issues remain top of mind for Trump voters, however:
- 92% believe biological sex is immutable, meaning it cannot be changed. Contrary to the testimony of transgender Americans, only 7% of Trump voters said a person can be anything but the sex they were assigned at birth.
- 89% believe gun ownership increases more than it decreases safety.
- 83% believe the criminal justice system is not tough enough on criminals.
- 75% do not believe the legacy of slavery affects the position of Black people in America today and therefore is not an issue worth addressing.
Pew cites two areas where Trump voters hold positions that might challenge conventional wisdom about them:
- 71% said the gains women have made in society have not come at the expense of men.
- 55% said religion should be kept separate from government policies.
On the separation of religion and government, Trump voters fall 30 points behind Kamala Harris voters in saying this is an important issue.
“Trump supporters wanted a smaller government but no changes to Social Security,” Pew notes. “Republicans and Democrats have long differed over the size and scope of government, and that continued in this election cycle. For example, 72% of Trump supporters said aid to the poor does more harm than good. Only 18% of Harris backers said the same.”
There’s one thing both Trump and Harris supporters almost agree on: Opposing any reductions in the Social Security program; 77% of Trump voters oppose that as do 83% of Harris voters.
Overall, Trump voters are more pessimistic about the nation and their own conditions than are Harris voters. A month before the election, only 5% of Trump supporters said they were satisfied with the way things were going in the country.
And to the question of whether Trump voters understood who and what they were voting for, Pew says the answer is a resounding yes:
- In October, 94% of Trump supporters said he had clearly explained his policies for addressing illegal immigration.
- 89% of Trump voters said he had clearly explained his policies on the economy.
- 84% said he had clearly explained his positions on foreign policy and abortion.
Trump has pledged to enact dozens of changes by executive order on day one, and his voters understand that and agree with it, Pew says:
- 58% said it would be definitely or probably acceptable for him to use executive orders to make policies if he can’t get his priorities through Congress.
- 54% said it would be acceptable for him to order federal law enforcement officials to investigate his Democratic political opponents.
However, Trump does not have majority backing for two of his planned revenge actions:
- 58% said it would be unacceptable for him to fire government workers for not being loyal to him.
- 57% said it would be unacceptable for him to pardon friends or supporters who have been convicted of a crime.
