WASHINGTON (ABP) — Even though both houses of Congress became more Republican in the Nov. 2 elections, that doesn't necessarily mean President Bush will have an easier time appointing conservative judges or passing the most controversial parts of his social agenda.
Republicans experienced a net gain of four seats in the Senate, increasing their advantage over Democrats to 55-45 — with one liberal-leaning independent usually voting with Democrats. Republicans also picked up a handful of seats in the House, increasing their lead to at least 231-201. One left-leaning independent in the House usually votes with Democrats, while two Louisiana contests will be decided in a Dec. 4 runoff.
But the elevation of a moderate Republican to lead the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee means the appointment of controversial federal judges may be less likely than in Bush's first term.
Meanwhile, Senate Democrats still have more than enough members to filibuster highly controversial legislation or judicial appointments.
In his final term, Bush is likely to have two — and possibly as many as four — opportunities to appoint new members to the Supreme Court. He has publicly cited the court's two most conservative members — associate justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas — as his models for future court appointments.
Bush has faced filibusters in the Senate already over a handful of the most conservative of his nominees to lower federal courts. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist said Nov. 3 that the change in the Senate and the president's strong showing on Election Day meant that such filibusters would be less likely.
But a change in the Republican leadership of the Senate committee that deals with judicial nominees may complicate things for Bush. In a Nov. 3 Associated Press story, the incoming chairman of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee is quoted as warning the president against sending the committee far-right nominees to the federal bench.
“When you talk about judges who would change the right of a woman to choose, overturn Roe vs. Wade, I think that is unlikely,” said Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Penn.), according to the AP.
Specter is a moderate who has been supportive of both abortion rights and church-state separation. He led opposition to two of the late President Ronald Reagan's most controversial federal-bench nominees.
“The president is well aware of what happened, when a number of his nominees were sent up, with the filibuster,” Specter continued. “… And I would expect the president to be mindful of the considerations which I am mentioning.”
The loss of several moderate Democrats in the House and Senate means both houses of Congress have become more polarized along ideological and partisan lines. In the South, several conservative Republicans replaced moderate or conservative Democrats in the Senate.
For example, Rep. Jim DeMint (R) will replace retiring Sen. Ernest Hollings (D) for South Carolina's open Senate seat. DeMint engendered controversy during his campaign for, among other things, saying that he didn't believe public schools should employ homosexuals or single mothers as teachers.
Similarly, in Louisiana, conservative Republican Rep. David Vitter will take over a Senate seat being vacated by retiring moderate Democrat John Breaux. Breaux had historically been one of the Democratic senators most likely to break with his party's leadership to vote with the majority of Republicans on economic and social issues.
Voters' differences with Democratic candidates over cultural issues — such as same-sex marriage — may have helped Republicans in socially conservative states. The election's biggest upset came when former Republican Rep. John Thune defeated Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota by less than 5,000 votes.
Although Daschle opposes same-sex marriage, he led his party in opposing the Federal Marriage Amendment, which would outlaw gay unions nationwide. Thune used that against Daschle in South Dakota, a generally conservative state that supported President Bush's re-election by a wide margin.
“There's no question” that the issue of same-sex marriage played “a huge role” in Daschle's defeat, said Matt Daniels, president of the Alliance for Marriage. Daniels' group supports the proposed amendment. “It was at the very center of that race,” he said.
Of prominent Baptist candidates in hotly contested elections, one lost and one barely held on. After running neck-and-neck earlier in the race, Rep. Brad Carson (D-Okla.) ended up losing a contest for an open Oklahoma Senate seat by a wide margin to former Rep. Tom Coburn.
Meanwhile, Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas) barely survived a strong challenge from a Republican candidate. Edwards was among a handful of moderate white Democrats, targeted by Texas Republicans in a controversial redistricting plan that passed last year. Although the plan is still the subject of a court challenge, Edwards was the only one of the group to gain re-election. He is one of Congress' most ardent defenders of church-state separation.