The spread of measles is inevitable in communities where reliance on vaccine alternatives is high and trust in medical science is low, a panel of vaccine and infectious disease experts warned during a March 20 webinar.
The media briefing was organized by the nonprofit group SciLine in response to ongoing outbreaks of the highly infectious disease that have infected more than 300 people in 15 states and killed a 6-year-old girl in Texas.
David Higgins
“Vaccination rates have dropped so low that we’re seeing a resurgence and spread of measles outbreaks,” said David Higgins, a pediatrician and vaccine researcher with the University of Colorado-Denver School of Medicine.
“When vaccination rates drop in the community, it is not a question of if, it’s a question of when measles is going to come because it is so incredibly contagious. We know these outbreaks happen in local communities and so even if a state has a (vaccination) rate that is at the goal, that might not mean a local community or a local county is at that goal, and they are susceptible to having an outbreak.”
The Centers for Disease Control has reported 301 confirmed cases of measles in Alaska, California, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York City, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont and Washington.
CDC identified three outbreaks — defined as three or more related cases — in 2025, with 280 of 301 cases being outbreak-associated. By comparison, 16 outbreaks were reported in 2024 with 69% of 285 total cases caused by outbreaks.
The ongoing outbreak in West Texas has gotten the lion’s share of national attention since a 6-year-old unvaccinated girl died of measles in Lubbock in February, marking the first measles death in the U.S. since 2015.
The Texas Department of State Health Services reported 279 cases of measles in the South Plains and Panhandle regions as of March 18.
“Due to the highly contagious nature of this disease, additional cases are likely to occur in the outbreak area and the surrounding communities. DSHS is working with local health departments to investigate the outbreak,” the bulletin said.
Health officials in New Mexico are trying to determine if an unvaccinated adult died of measles in Lea County this month.
Chad Smelser
“We don’t want to see New Mexicans getting sick or dying from measles,” said Chad Smelser, deputy state epidemiologist with the New Mexico Department of Health. “The measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine is the best protection against this serious disease.”
But getting that message across has been increasingly challenging in a culture rife with anti-vaccine conspiracy theories that surged into social media and political prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic, the panelists said.
No one exemplifies those attitudes more than Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the new U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services known for his staunch opposition to vaccines. In a recent interview with Fox News, he said vaccines promote “community immunity” then touted vitamin A, cod liver oil and steroids as effective treatments for measles.
“What we’re trying to do is really to restore our faith in government and to make sure that we are there to help them with their needs and not particularly to dictate what they ought to be doing,” Kennedy said. “We’re going to do what’s right for the American people. We’re going to be honest with the American people for the first time in the history.”
“The measles vaccine is safe, and it’s also believed to offer lifelong immunity.”
But the fact is measles is on the rise due to declining vaccinations for the disease.
According to the CDC, measles, mumps and rubella vaccination coverage among kindergarten children decreased to 93% during the 2023-2024 school year. The desired minimum is 95%, and declines in vaccinations were measured in 80% of jurisdictions.
Amy Winter
Declining vaccination rates diminish the “herd immunity” that protects entire communities from measles outbreaks, said Amy Winter, assistant professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Georgia College of Public Health.
“High vaccination coverage allows indirect protection for susceptible individuals by reducing the overall amount of measles virus available to infect those who are not immune.”
The vaccine is 93% effective with one dose and 97% effective with two, Winter explained. “The measles vaccine is safe, and it’s also believed to offer lifelong immunity.”
Tina Tan
But prevalent vaccine myths make it hard for some people to believe that, said Tina Tan, professor of pediatrics and infectious diseases at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine.
“A major concern people have is that vaccines cause autism. They also feel they don’t want to introduce foreign materials into their child’s body, or that a natural infection is going to help them more. They are very concerned about other types of side effects and the fact many anti-vaxxers are saying vaccines are not effective,” she explained.
But all such theories have been consistently disproved in thousands of studies, Wiggins added. “Tens of thousands of researchers and physicians and public health officials have said this vaccine is safe and effective. The other side is built on a myth or fringe ideology.”
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