Donald Trump’s persecution of undocumented immigrants is already having an adverse effect on the U.S. economy, a financial expert said during a virtual press briefing hosted by America’s Voice.
Recent economic data indicate a slowing of the economy since Trump took office, including declines in consumer confidence, less-than-predicted hiring in February, a -2.4% GDP contraction forecast for the first quarter and the sudden loss of thousands of federal jobs, said Michael Ettlinger, senior fellow at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.
Michael Ettlinger
About 151,000 jobs were created in the U.S. last month, while 170,000 new hires had been predicted, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Federal employment dropped by about 10,000, largely due to billionaire Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.
Also making Wall Street nervous are the president’s on-again, off-again 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products and businesses’ concerns about the future availability of immigrant labor as Trump’s deportation plan kicks into gear.
“What’s clear from the jobs numbers, from the markets, from the GDP forecast, is that no one is betting on the Trump economy despite the promises of corporate tax cuts, tariffs and deportations helping American workers,” Ettlinger said. “People aren’t actually putting their money on those things being wins for them.”
Ettlinger was part of a panel of experts organized to discuss how Trump’s mass deportation campaign is slowing hiring, driving up prices and inflicting cuts to Medicaid and other social safety net programs.
Vanessa Cardenas
The webinar was part of the America’s Voice “At What Cost?” campaign, said Vanessa Cardenas, executive director of the immigration advocacy organization. “This campaign seeks to call attention to the very high price Americans will have to pay, and are already paying, to live in Trump’s America.”
The president and his allies are planning to cut billions of dollars from key domestic programs to finance the effort to deport millions of immigrants, including women and children, she said.
“In spite of their claims that they care about public safety, they are willing to divert border security personnel and defund vital technology investments all in order to deport long-established contributors to our nation,” she said. “That’s not security, that’s insanity. They are terrorizing and deporting immigrants essential to the vitality of major industries.”
Also sowing economic instability is Trump’s chaotic governing style, which keeps nations, corporations, investors and households in the dark about what to expect next, Ettlinger added. “Who’s going to make substantial investments when tariffs are coming and going daily, completely changing the economics of supply chain choices? Who’s going to make investments when it’s completely unclear what services are going to be available from the government?”
“Who’s going to make substantial investments when tariffs are coming and going daily, completely changing the economics of supply chain choices?”
Many businesses will delay or cancel equipment purchases and new construction due to concerns about inflation and workforce availability, he predicted.
“If I’m a homeowner, am I going to make a down payment on a kitchen remodel if the contractor may lose their work authorization and be removed from the country? If I rely on an immigrant child care worker, am I going to take on a new, more demanding job knowing that person may no longer be available? The threat of deportations is looming over all of these kinds of decisions across the economy.”
American workers and consumers also are harmed as a direct consequence of the administration’s deportation program, he said. “Employers can’t find U.S.-born replacements for the deported immigrants for the kinds of jobs they do, so they downsize their businesses. That means layoffs or lower pay for their nonimmigrant employees.”
The layoffs and downsizings cascade into other businesses and their workers, and also into companies that serve immigrant customers, he continued.
“So, the big picture is that the economy, as a whole, downsizes to the detriment of everyone, and tax revenues also drop. The best estimate for deporting the current population of (around 11 million) undocumented people in the United States is about $100 billion in taxes — federal and state combined.”
Arnulfo De La Cruz
And it is outrageous that congressional spending bills would slash billions more from education and social safety net programs to give major tax breaks to wealthy Americans and to underwrite deportations, said Arnulfo De La Cruz, president of the Service Employees International Union Local 2015 in California.
The union, which represents U.S.-born and immigrant workers in the home care, nursing home and assisted living industries, is engaged in lobbying and grassroots campaigning against deportations and funding cuts.
“We have a government right now that’s clearly prioritizing billionaires ahead of working people and impacting and targeting our immigrant workforce that sustains so many industries, but in particular the care industry,” De La Cruz said.
Three in 10 care industry employees and 17% of the overall U.S. labor force are immigrants, he said. “They make up an essential-but-invisible workforce that enables millions of Americans, including seniors and people with disabilities, to thrive and live with dignity.”
The administration promised to lower the cost of goods and services but instead is driving up costs and cutting services just as laid out in Project 2025, he warned. “This month we are going to unite with our movement partners to expose politicians who are enabling the Trump and Musk power grab and their refusal to stand with working people at the national level.”
The president’s deportation action against immigrants also is tearing apart the communities they live in, said Juliana Macedo do Nascimento, deputy director of federal advocacy for United We Dream.
“Our congressionally elected leaders must understand that any dollar more to these state-sanctioned kidnappings will only exacerbate the growing devastation in our country,” she said. “To fund these kidnappings requires Trump and his cult of billionaires to steal from hard-working everyday Americans and the resources that truly keep us safe, including Social Security and vital food programs like SNAP.”
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