Race, religion and Christian nationalism were among the top influencers of presidential voting in the 2024 election, according to new polling by Public Religion Research Institute.
Half of all U.S. voters chose Republican Donald Trump on Election Day compared to 48% who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris.
But white voters cast votes for Trump 55% to 43% over Harris, compared to Black voters who voted for Harris 81% to 17% over Trump. Hispanics were somewhat more evenly divided, with 53% voting for Harris and 45% for Trump, PRRI said in the post-election survey released Dec. 13.
Efron Perez
“It’s very clear from the survey that whereas we once expected maybe one out of three Latinos to vote Republican regardless of the candidate, we are basically seeing half,” said Efren Perez, professor of political science at UCLA, during PRRI’s webinar release of the survey.
But it’s much too early to draw definitive conclusions about the trend, Perez added. “Donald Trump is sort of a quantity and a product all on his own, and so it’s really hard to tell how much of this support among Latinos has to do with that unique brand of his rather than a very durable, sincere attachment to the Republican Party.”
The study also reported “stark” voter divides along religious lines, with 85% of white evangelicals, 64% of Hispanic Protestants, 59% of white Catholics and 57% of white Mainline Protestants casting ballots for Trump. Majorities of Black Protestants (83%), unaffiliated voters (72%), non-Christian people of faith (67%), Jewish voters (62%) and 55% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Harris.
Robert P. Jones
Overwhelming support for Trump among white evangelicals came as no surprise given that more than 80% of them backed him in the previous two general elections, said PRRI President Robert P. Jones.
Just as significant is the continuing chasm between white evangelical and Black Protestant voting preferences, Jones added. “I want to pause and say how remarkable that is. African American Protestants and white evangelical Protestants share a lot of theology, share a lot of geography, yet their voting patterns are mirror images, particularly in the Trump era and really since the Civil Rights era.”
Education also was a contributing factor on Election Day, with 66% of white noncollege graduates voting for Trump compared to 44% of those who graduated from college. Among Hispanics, 48% of noncollege graduates picked Trump versus 40% of college graduates. Black noncollege graduates (78%) and college graduates (86%) chose Harris.
The PRRI survey also found a correlation between frequency of church attendance and white voter support for Trump, especially with white evangelicals. In that group, 88% who attend church weekly or more voted for Trump, as did 81% of those who attend monthly or a few times a year and 77% who seldomly or never attend church.
Among white Catholics, 64% who attend at least weekly backed Trump in the 2024 election, along with 58% who attend monthly and 56% who seldomly or never attend.
Attendance was less of a determining factor in Trump’s support among white nonevangelical Protestants, with 52% of weekly attenders, 56% of monthly attenders and 59% of those who seldomly or never attend casting ballots for him.
Levels of support for Christian nationalism, authoritarianism and QAnon conspiracies also sharply divided Americans in their presidential voting, PRRI reported: “A strong majority of Americans who qualify as Christian nationalism adherents and sympathizers report voting for Trump (83%), while almost two-thirds of Christian nationalism rejecters and skeptics (64%) report voting for Harris.”
Respondents also were asked if they believe Trump’s election was a sign of “divine endorsement,” with 60% of white evangelicals, 59% of Christian nationalism supporters and 45% of Hispanic Protestants affirming that view. Only 17% of Black Protestants agreed.
A large majority (82%) of Americans who expressed “high” or “very high” levels of support for authoritarian leaders and government voted for Trump, while most (79%) of those with “low” or “very low” opinions voted for Harris, PRRI found. “QAnon believers are far more likely to report voting for Trump (81%) while QAnon rejecters report voting for Harris (73%) at much higher numbers.”
The survey also gauged voter confidence in U.S. democracy and elections. More than half (55%) said they are “very confident” the 2024 election was conducted fairly, while 31% of all Americans and 63% of Republicans maintained the 2020 presidential contest was stolen from Trump. Confidence in the accuracy and fairness of the 2024 election was much higher among Republican voters (66%) compared with Democratic voters (44%), according to the survey.
The study also reported a spike in partisan polarization since 2016.
“Republican voters are more likely to see the Democratic Party as a serious threat to the country today than they did when Trump first ran for office (60% in 2016 vs. 69% in 2024); however, the perception among Democrats that the Republican Party poses a serious threat has increased at a much higher rate in that same time (50% in 2016 vs. 81% in 2024).”
Suspicion of the Democratic Party among independent voters dipped from 35% in 2016 to 32% this year, while the number concerned about Republicans shot up from 26% to 42% in the same span, the report says.
Meanwhile, 70% of all U.S. voters agreed the biggest dangers facing the nation emanate not from external sources but from “those living among us,” PRRI found. “Strong majorities of Republican voters (73%), Democratic voters (69%), and independent voters (65%) share this sentiment.”
Voters were heavily divided over the likely strength of American democracy during the next four years. While about four in 10 voters said they are “very confident” democracy will remain strong during Trump’s upcoming term, 79% of Republicans expressed that view compared to 35% of independents and only 5% of Democrats.
“Partisanship, race and Christian nationalist views strongly shape Americans’ confidence that Donald Trump will peacefully leave office at the end of his term,” PRRI reported.
Overall, 42% of voters expressed confidence Trump will leave office peacefully at the end of his term, an opinion shared by only 5% of Democrats and 37% of independents. Those who believe he will leave office peacefully included 79% of Republicans and 69% of Christian nationalism supporters.
The divide was similar when respondents were asked if free political expression would continue during the next presidential term, including speech critical of the Trump administration. Four in 10 of all voters said they are confident freedom of speech would continue, compared to 72% of Republicans, 38% of independents and only 10% of Democrats. White voters (45%) and Black voters (20%) were sharply divided on the question.
“Christian nationalism adherent and sympathizer voters (61%) are about twice as likely as Christian nationalism rejecter and skeptic voters (32%) to express confidence in their ability to freely express their political opinions,” PRRI reported.
Republicans (63%) and Christian nationalists (55%) said they were “not at all confident” Trump will use government power for retribution against his enemies. Only 6% of Democrats and 34% of independents shared that confidence.
Republican voters (46%) and those with strong authoritarian beliefs (48%) were most likely to say the U.S. military should be used to place unauthorized immigrants in internment camps until their deportation. But only 12% of all voters, 19% of independents and 8% of Democrats agreed.