In 2024, independent voters helped elect Donald Trump. Two years later, there are more registered independent voters than ever, and polls show most will back Democrats in November’s midterms.
“A shift in independents’ political leanings caused the Republican Party advantage that aided Trump’s reelection to dissipate almost as soon as he took office,” according to results of a January Gallup poll.
Around one-third of Americans were independents in 1990. Today it’s 45%, an all-time high. Younger voters are propelling the shift. Unlike previous generations, Millennials and members of Generation X haven’t embraced political parties as they’ve aged, Gallup reports.
One September survey found Trump has lost support over his war with Iran, his handling of the economy, and his immigration policies, and only 23% of independents now approve of his presidency.
In past elections, independents sometimes voted in fewer numbers than partisans did. This year they seem more excited about voting than some Republicans are. Trump’s pleas for voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot” aren’t helping.
“Putting Trump center stage might well excite (loyal) Trump supporters, but it might also remind independents of their deepening reservations about the president,” wrote one political scientist.
Independents don’t find a home in either political party, but that doesn’t mean they’re middle-of-the-road centrists. In 2024 they swung red. In 2026 they’re swinging blue.
“More independents lean Democratic than Republican, giving Democrats [an] edge in party affiliation for [the] first time since 2021,” Gallup reported.
“Independents give the Democratic candidate for Congress a 25-point advantage,” said a September Marist Poll. “Independents break 57% for the Democrat running for office to 32% for the Republican on the ballot.”
Faith also can play a role in party affiliation.
“There’s a growing group of people who consider themselves politically homeless, and a lot of that has been informed by their religious convictions and faith,” said Jeff Scholes of the Center for the Study of Evangelicalism at the University of Colorado Colorado Springs, which hosted a September panel discussion on “political homelessness.”
White evangelicals approve of Trump’s job performance at higher rates than any other faith group, according to a Pew Research Center analysis released Tuesday.
A majority of white evangelicals (58%) approve of Trump’s performance now. That’s down 20 points from January 2025, the beginning of Trump 2.0, when 78% of white evangelicals approved.
“White evangelical Protestants are the only religious group in which more people approve than disapprove of Trump’s job performance (58% vs. 40%),” reported Pew. “In every other group, more disapprove than approve. Atheists, agnostics and Black Protestants are the most likely to disapprove of Trump’s handling of the job.”
Among religious groups, Pew found 90% of Black Protestants disapprove of Trump’s job performance, followed by 78% of Hispanic Catholics, 67% of all Catholics and 60% of non-evangelical white Protestants.
Pew found only 30% of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s performance, a number below that of many current polls.
In Colorado, 50% of registered voters are independent. That’s one of the inspirations for the Center for the Study of Evangelicalism’s recent panel discussion on “Political Homelessness and Faith in the USA.”
Colorado Springs Mayor Yemi Mobolade offered an eloquent defense of political independence. “I am politically homeless, but I’m not politically disengaged,” he told the crowd.
Yemi Mobolade
Elected in 2023, Mobolade is an evangelical Christian, a Nigerian immigrant and the first Black man and first non-Republican to be elected mayor of Colorado Springs in more than four decades.
He registered as an independent the day after he became a U.S. citizen nine years ago and believes Jesus would be independent if he were an American today.
“I did not become politically homeless because I stopped caring about politics,” he said “I became politically homeless because I cared about two other things: people and principles. And I believe that no political party could and can contain all my convictions.”
Mobolade grew up in Nigeria’s Yoruba tribe and learned early on both the beauty and the “shadow side” of tribalism. “A tribe gives you identity. A tribe gives you belonging. A tribe gives you history. A tribe gives you language, and people who know you and people who have your back.”
Then there’s the shadow side: “The temptation to believe that because these are my people, the other people somehow are less worthy. … I was taught that loyalty to the group matters more than truth. That loyalty, that protecting the tribe, matters more than anything.”
Mobolade acknowledged the isolation that can come with independence from political tribes. “It’s freaking lonely,” he said.
But he believes the benefits are worth it: “I wake up every morning and not once do I think, ‘What is my party’s position on this?’ I begin with what is the right thing to do. What works? What serves people? What moves our community forward?”
While 45% of U.S. voters are registered as independents, the number of independent voters varies widely from state to state.
In Massachusetts, 66.62% of voters are independent. In Alaska it’s 63.42%. In contrast, in Kentucky only 5% of voters are independent. In Alabama it’s 8.6%, according to the Independent Voter Project, which seeks to engage nonpartisan voters in election reform.
Related:
What if independent voters are trying to tell us something? | Opinion by Stuart Lord