With their man headed back to the White House, Republicans are significantly more optimistic about America’s fate in 2025 than either Democrats or independents, according to Gallup.
The venerable polling firm asked a representative national sample their opinions on the year ahead in a survey conducted Dec. 4-15.
Overall, majorities of U.S. adults think 2025 will be a year of political conflict, economic difficulty, international discord, increasing power for China and Russia, and a rising federal budget deficit.
But Republicans see a brighter horizon. Among that political segment, 90% believe America will increase its power in the world (compared to 19% of Democrats and 48% of independents).
Republicans also strongly believe (88%) the stock market will rise this year. That belief is shared by 65% of independents and 46% of Democrats.
One of the sharpest areas of disagreement is about whether 2025 will bring “a peaceful year, more or less free of international disputes.” Republicans are six times more likely (63%) to believe this will be true than are Democrats (8%) and more than twice as likely to believe it as independents (28%).
Similarly, Republicans are overly optimistic compared to others that this will be a year of political cooperation (45% of Republicans versus 8% of Democrats and 18% of independents).
On each of 13 areas measured by Gallup, Republicans are twice as likely — or more — than Democrats to take the rosy view.
The combined prediction of all Americans looks for stock market increases, full employment and consumer prices rising “at a reasonable rate.”
The one area Americans as a whole are most negative about is the likelihood of political cooperation, with only 23% foreseeing such a positive outcome and 76% instead predicting a year of political conflict.
Americans on the whole also predict 2025 will be a year of “international discord” rather than one “free of international disputes.”
Gallup’s Megan Brennan offered interpretation to these findings.
“A gap in partisans’ positive predictions is typical, as Americans who identify with the president’s party are more optimistic in their outlook for the year ahead,” she said. “Although Democrats were more hopeful than Republicans about all dimensions for 2023, their optimism was not as fervent as Republicans’ is this year. At the end of 2022, the nation was plagued by high inflation, which likely tempered Democrats’ optimism. Trump’s victory in November has energized Republicans and has undoubtedly contributed to their broadly positive expectations for the year ahead.”
