The year conservatives consolidated control of the Southern Baptist Convention is the last year a key marker of denominational growth showed an overall upward trend, according to new annual data released by Lifeway Christian Resources.
Even a slight rebound in the two years after the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic has left baptisms in SBC churches at half the levels recorded in 1999, the year conservatives flexed their newly gained authority by appointing a committee to rewrite the denomination’s faith statement.
The so-called “conservative resurgence” was launched in 1979 by Paul Pressler and Paige Patterson based on an appeal to rid the SBC of “liberalism” and avoid the downward demographics already experienced by Mainline denominations. That was just three years after the SBC had adopted a global evangelism strategy called Bold Mission Thrust.
There is no greater single measure of success for Southern Baptists than baptisms, which shows the number of converts brought into the faith and the church each year. This metric finds biblical support in Jesus’ Great Commission, where he told his disciples before his ascension to go into all nations and baptize believers and teach them the faith.
Total membership in SBC churches has been on a downward spiral since 2006. Last year’s attendance numbers have not been released yet but typically come out in May.
In 2022, the SBC recorded the largest numerical drop in membership in a century, with nearly half a million members gone. SBC membership reached a peak of 16.3 million in 2006 and had dropped to 13.2 million by 2022.
But baptisms have declined even more precipitously. The high water mark was in 1972 — an era of rapid church growth everywhere — with 445,725 baptisms nationwide. That was followed by another peak of 419,342 in 1999. The modern low happened in 2020, the year of the pandemic, with 123,160 baptisms.
Due to church closures and contact precautions, the rapid acceleration of a downward trend surprised no one. As churches have returned to more normal operations in the past two years, baptism rates have rebounded some, but not yet to the low mark where they stood before the pandemic.
Baptisms for the 2022 church year were reported as 180,177 — 57% less than in 1999 and still below the already low levels recorded in 2019.
“To Baptists, baptism is more than a religious ritual. It marks an outward, obedient, public profession of faith,” said Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research. “The mission of New Testament churches is to make disciples, and those who are baptized represent much celebrated converts to following Jesus Christ.”
Those who wrested control of the denomination from so-called “moderates” did so with a heavy emphasis on evangelism and accused the old establishment of not emphasizing conversion. They pledged to usher in a new golden age of church growth, but the exact opposite happened instead.
By some accounts, the hand already had been dealt with national trends of America becoming more secular and religiously diverse. By other accounts, the alliance of conservative evangelicals with the Religious Right political movement, their disdain for gay people and women in ministry all made potential converts stay away. By still other accounts, the rise of a resurgent Calvinism within the SBC countered the evangelistic impulse that had defined the SBC for most of the 20th century.
Total baptisms next year likely will take a hit for another reason: Last summer, the SBC expelled its largest church and the church with the single most annual baptisms — Saddleback Church — because the church ordains women and allows women to preach.
Whatever the cause, the data continue to show even the nation’s largest Protestant denomination is not immune to decline. However, even with its steep declines in membership and baptisms, the SBC remains by far the largest and most influential body in America beyond the Catholic Church.
The correction in baptism trends the last two years could be played as good news, but denominational officials admit the years of increase have failed to recover baptisms to pre-pandemic levels.
Data on membership, attendance and baptisms is collected through the SBC’s Annual Church Profile, a survey sent each year to every affiliated church. Those data are collected and reported by Lifeway Research.
Among other baptism-related findings from 2022:
- In 2017, the average SBC church had 7.9 baptisms. In 2022, churches averaged 5.4 baptisms.
- 43% of Southern Baptist churches reported no baptisms in 2022.
- 34% of churches baptized one to five people, while 9% recorded six to nine baptisms.
- Only 13% reported at least 10 baptisms, including 5% who baptized 20 or more converts for the year.
- Churches in the South, those in urban areas and congregations established most recently had higher raw numbers of baptisms.
- In keeping with long-established traditions, the newer the church the more baptisms they saw. This is one reason the SBC and other denominations emphasize church starting. New churches are known to generate more converts than established churches.
- For every 100 people attending a worship service in a Southern Baptist church, five people were baptized on average.