There is good reason to believe female voters may be crucial to Democrats’ effort to retake control of Congress — particularly if past is prologue.
In the 2018 midterms, during Donald Trump’s first term, 58% of women voted for congressional Democratic candidates, compared with 40% for Republicans.
Yet female voters are far from politically monolithic. In those same midterms, 48% of white women voted for Republican House candidates, compared with 23% of Hispanic women and just 5% of Black women. White female voters, however, make up a much larger percentage of the electorate.
Moreover, since 1980, women have been significantly less likely than men to vote Republican and more likely to vote Democratic — what scholars call the gender gap. In 2018, 48% of men voted for House GOP candidates, producing a gender gap of 8 points. In the last midterm in 2022, that gap narrowed to 6 points.
Democrats’ ability to widen the gender gap this November could mean the difference between a good night, in which they retake the House, and a great night, in which they retake the Senate too. If white women are especially motivated to vote Democratic, it could be another wave election.
“White Christian voters — particularly white evangelical Protestants — remain the most steadfast Republican voting bloc.”
Which white women voters are most up for grabs, however, likely will be shaped by religion. White Christian voters — particularly white evangelical Protestants — remain the most steadfast Republican voting bloc. PRRI’s Census of American Religion finds nearly seven in 10 Republicans are white and Christian, compared with about one in four Democrats.
Will Democrats have any luck peeling off white Christian women this midterm? It depends — but some white Christian women may be more open to abandoning GOP congressional candidates than others.
Not all Christian women voters are the same
My recent Spotlight Analysis examines how white Christian women and men have voted in both presidential and congressional elections since 1960. In congressional elections, there were few gender differences before 1984 among white Christians. A broad gap emerged in congressional voting in 1986, but a persistent gender gap — with white Christian men voting Republican at higher rates than women — didn’t take hold until 1996.
In the 2018 midterms, 72% of white Christian men voted for Republican House candidates, compared with 61% of white Christian women. That gap narrowed somewhat in 2022.
Importantly, strong majorities of white Christian female voters have remained loyal to the GOP this century. In only two elections — 2008 and 2024 — did fewer than six in 10 white Christian women vote for House Republicans.
Still, important differences emerge among white evangelical, white Mainline/nonevangelical and Catholic women. Since 2000, roughly three in four white evangelical women have voted for House GOP candidates, if not more (that figure dipped to 68% in 2008). White evangelical women remain fiercely loyal to the Republican Party and to Donald Trump, and it’s hard to imagine meaningful numbers defecting to Democratic congressional candidates.
White Catholic and Mainline Protestant women may offer more of an opening for Democrats come November. In the 2018 midterms, half of white Catholic women (50%) voted for House Republicans — well below the rate among white Catholic men. Their support rose 11 points in 2022, before falling back to 55% in 2024.
White Mainline Protestant women show an even clearer trajectory toward openness to Democratic candidates this fall. In the 2018 midterms, just 41% voted for House Republicans. That figure rose 10 points in 2022, then dropped to 48% in 2024.
Trump’s declining favorability impacts white female Christians
Polling shows favorable views of Donald Trump have declined dramatically since his second inauguration. PRRI’s most recent survey, using data collected in May 2026, found just 34% of Americans view Trump favorably. Favorability among white Christians remains roughly 20 points higher than among Americans overall, although even here, Trump’s ratings have slipped since we first tracked this measure after Trump’s inauguration in early 2025.
Among white Christian women, 56% viewed Trump favorably at the start of his second term; that figure now stands at roughly one in two (51%). White evangelical women have not budged in their overall assessment of Trump since February 2025, but favorability has dropped 9 points among white Catholic women (from 53% to 43%) and 6 points among white Mainline Protestant women (from 48% to 43%) — enough to leave Trump’s ratings underwater with both groups.
Trump’s immigration performance declines sharply among white Mainline and white Catholic women
Trump’s immigration crackdown has been unpopular across most voter groups, and white Christians are no exception. In February 2025, 68% of white Christians viewed Trump’s handling of immigration favorably; by late May 2026, that support decreased 8 points (60%).
However, white Christian men and women diverge here in our most recent polling: 65% of white Christian men still viewed Trump’s immigration performance favorably, compared with just 54% of women.
Trump began his second term in strong standing on immigration among white Mainline Protestant (59%) and Catholic (60%) women. By this summer, favorable views of Trump’s performance had fallen 12 points among white Catholic women (to 48%) and 14 points among white Mainline Protestant women. Support among white evangelical women also slipped slightly, but two in three (68%) still hold favorable views of his handling of the issue.
The war in Iran is unpopular with white Christian women
Trump’s handling of the war in Iran is broadly unpopular with most Americans, with two in three (66%) viewing his performance unfavorably — including a substantial share (51%) rating it very unfavorably. Half (51%) of white Christians rate Trump’s handling of Iran as unfavorable.
While 55% of white evangelical women give Trump a favorable rating on his handling of the war, white Mainline Protestant and Catholic women are 20 points less likely to do so.
Scholars find that American women routinely are less likely to support the use of force than their male counterparts, and that gender gap extends to Republicans. Our May 2026 survey found American women are significantly less likely (26%) to give Trump favorable ratings on the war in Iran compared with 33% of men.
With no end in sight of the war in Iran, as Americans continue to pay more for gas, groceries and energy bills, the disastrous war may serve to motivate women voters more than men — including many white Christian women.
Takeaways for November
Current polls predict Democrats are poised to take back a majority of House seats come November and the Senate is now up for grabs as well, after early year polls indicated the Senate was likely to stay in Republican hands — due no doubt to Trump’s deep unpopularity amid a dismal economy marked by rising inflation.
Many voters have soured on Trump’s handling of immigration, and there appears to be no end in sight to the war in Iran. Trump also has lost standing with many white Christian voters — long his strongest base.
Yet his deepening unpopularity is driven more by white Christian women voters than men, particularly white Mainline Protestant and white Catholic women. I’ll have my eye on those women this November, in particular, as critical to the outcome of both the Senate and House midterms.
Melissa Deckman
Melissa Deckman serves as CEO of Public Religion Research Institute and is author of The Politics of Gen Z.
This column originally appeared on her Substack and is republished here with permission. Subscribe to her original columns there as well.
