I don’t believe President Donald Trump understands the political risk of picking a fight with Pope Leo XIV. My best guess is he believes the unquestioning submission demonstrated by his fawning white evangelical followers exists among all his Christian followers. But Catholics are not white evangelical Protestants.
While white evangelicals have voted more than 80% for Trump every time he has been on the ballot and have held strongly favorable views of Trump through every controversy and outrage over the last decade, Catholics have been more measured in their support. Most notably, there is a strong racial and ethnic divide among Catholics: Six in 10 white Catholics supporting Trump each time he has been on the ballot, but six in 10 Latino Catholics have supported his Democratic opponents.
Robert P. Jones
Even before Trump’s war of choice with Iran, Trump’s standing with American Catholics was shaky. In a PRRI survey prior to the U.S. attacks on Iran, Trump’s favorability among white Catholics was barely in positive territory (53%); his favorability among Latino Catholics was only 25%, down 12 percentage points from 37% just before the 2024 election.
In an IPSOS poll released last week, only 46% of white Catholics and 33% of nonwhite Catholics approved of the military strikes against Iran. And 64% of white Catholics and 75% of nonwhite Catholics support ending the Iran war, even if not all the goals were met.
If Trump’s support falls further, it could be game over for Republican candidates in competitive midterm elections and for the next Republican presidential candidate. While Trump and Republican candidates might be able to weather a 5- to 10-point drop in support among white evangelical Protestants, given that they largely live in safe deep red districts and states, the GOP would not survive such losses among Catholics — both because of their size and their location.
Overall, Catholics comprise 22% of Americans, nearly double the size of white evangelical Protestants (13%). Most importantly, Catholics are much more numerous in swing states, as this heat map illustrates (produced by PRRI’s interactive American Values Atlas, check it out for yourself!).
Heat map showing percentage of Catholics in each state. (Source: PRRI’s American Values Atlas)
Take this one insight: Trump won the 2024 election by winning 62% of the white Catholic vote and 41% of the Latino Catholic vote. In 2020, when his support among white Catholics was 5 points lower and support among Latino Catholics 10 points lower, he lost the election.
In the midterm elections, there are only a handfull of competitive races, and they are nearly all in states with significant Catholic populations. For example, the competitive House races are largely confined to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New York, New Jersey and Texas. Competitive Senate races are confined to Michigan, Maine, North Caroline, Georgia, Ohio, Alaska and New Hampshire.
In these competitive states for the midterm elections, the Catholic vote looms large:
- In 16 of these states, Catholics comprise at least 20% of residents.
- In four of these states, Catholics comprise at least 30% of residents.
- In California and Texas, Hispanic Catholics (reminder: Trump favorability at 25%) outnumber white Catholics by around four to one.
- In Nevada and Arizona, white Catholics and Hispanic Catholics are at parity.
As the ill-conceived war in Iran shows, Trump’s actions are guided by ego and the desire to dominate his opponents. Trump only thinks about consequences after they occur.
For the midterms, the consequences are clear: A significant drop in Catholic support for Republican candidates from 2024 election levels would mean almost certain defeat for Republican candidates. For those hoping to turn the country back toward a pluralistic democracy, these dynamics may be good news. By the time Trump feels the consequences of his feud with the pope, the power will have shifted.
Robert P. Jones serves as president and founder of PRRI and is the author of Backslide Reclaiming a Faith and a Nation After the Christian Turn Against Democracy, The Hidden Roots of White Supremacy and the Path to a Shared American Future and White Too Long: The Legacy of White Supremacy in American Christianity.
This column originally appeared on Robert P. Jones’ substack Redeeming Democracy. Subscribe there to follow the latest from Robert P. Jones.
Related articles:
‘We need the moral courage to stand where Pope Leo stood this morning’
Speaker Johnson joins Trump and Vance in warning to Pope Leo
Immoral vice president tells pope to stick to ‘matters of morality’ | Opinion by Mark Wingfield
Trump has a ‘God complex,’ Bishop Barber says
Why was the AI image of Trump as Jesus the last straw? | Analysis by Rick Pidcock
Image of Trump as Jesus healing a man is too much even for evangelicals