The defeat of Viktor Orban in Hungary holds promise for America. In one way, Orban’s demise is a lesson in Political Science 101: Political leaders, even in a quasi-democracy, can’t beat a bad economy.
Peter Magyar’s landslide victory in Hungary this week offers hope for overcoming President Donald Trump’s corrupt, authoritarian approach to politics in the United States.
Remember the immortal words of James Carville: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
“The economy trumps all culture war rhetoric.”
No one prays for a weak economy, especially not the president of the country. Why? The economy trumps all culture war rhetoric. As long as Trump can combine culture-war messaging and liberal-bashing rhetoric with economic prosperity, he wins. When the economy clashes with his emotion-heavy rhetoric, the state of the economy wins.
MAGA can’t purchase gas and groceries with emotions and feelings.
Prices matter more to Americans than Pride parades. When the economy breeds higher prices and inflation, no one is asking religious questions. Americans don’t ask if Jesus can help us lower prices. They hold the president responsible.
Rising inflation, virtually no growth, threats to the social safety net and the very, very, very rich getting very, very, very richer puts Trump and MAGA in jeopardy.
“When all boats aren’t rising, everybody looks at who’s on the yacht,” says Rod Dreher, an Orban admirer. “In terms of MAGA, populism is great, but if you can’t deliver on the economy, none of it is going to matter.”
Ironically, our secular vices may save us from our moral failures.
I think our vices will be our salvation: Our ideology of success, love of money and greed. America has converted from Depression-era virtues to the vices of consumerism and individualism. Our commitment to success will water down the cultural war emotions fueling a movement hurting the economy and deconstructing the educational system responsible for American success.
“The hope here is understanding even secular vices are rooted in ancient Christian virtues.”
The hope here is understanding even secular vices are rooted in ancient Christian virtues. Even the most ardent atheists in America have been formed in the image of Christian tradition.
Historian Robert S. McElvaine, in The Great Depression, argues America averted a new depression in the 2008 recession because the values of the 1930s had been replaced by the vices of acquisitive individualism.
Cultural warriors lack the skills to maintain emotional power in the face of a dissolving economy.
It turns out that fear messages have a short shelf life.
Ignoring the bad economy in Hungary, Orban raged against the demonic alliance between the West and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine. Trump has made fear a dominant theme. Michelle Goldberg of The New York Times reports, “Over and over, Magyar beseeched the crowd, ‘Do not be afraid!’ The crowd, in turn, broke into a chant: ‘We are not afraid!’”
There’s a point in a fear-based culture when people start saying, “I’m sick and tired of being afraid.”
Americans don’t traffic in fear as one of our defining values. “We have nothing to fear but fear itself,” thundered our most popular president, Franklin D. Roosevelt.
Fear is not an American habit. Americans honor and revere the fearless among us. The first responders plunging into the “hell” of the Twin Towers represent the American spirit. Fear has the power to drive an election cycle or even two but has no staying power.
And, thank God, corruption may finally be an issue.
Trump has been immune to criticism of the corruption his regime has allowed to proliferate. Evangelicals have turned a blind eye to Trump’s corrupt ways. Now, the chickens may be coming home to roost. Trump’s time in the White House may finally move him to the Big House — federal prison.
In Hungary, Magyar successfully made corruption a core campaign issue. Likewise, the corruption in the Trump administration lies around in full public view. The White House is the place to make deals. Trump, like Orban, has used his office to enrich himself, his family and his friends. His overall wealth has increased by $1.2 billion while being president for little more than a year.
The stench of corruption has dogged the president from the Trump University debacle to his felony convictions in New York to his endless self-promotions suggesting everything is for sale.
Here’s why Hungary matters to the U.S.: Orban has been the “poster politician” for Project 2025 in America. In 2022, Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, said, “Modern Hungary is not just a model for conservative statecraft, but the model.”
Orban has been Trump’s template. Steve Bannon once described Orban as “Trump before Trump.” It may be presumptuous to claim, “As goes Orban, so goes Trump/MAGA,” but the parallels are eerie.
America doesn’t like losers. Trump has made this a commandment for MAGA. He has labeled hundreds of Americans “losers.” Now, he faces Orban as a “loser.” And Vladimir Putin and Trump campaigning so aggressively for Orban doesn’t look good.
My interest lies in saving democracy, and at the moment I think secularists and humanists are our best allies. I confess I wish America were more secular and Christianity less American.
In this moment, I have confidence in the virtues of democracy to disrupt all populist movements rooted in authoritarianism. And oddly, Trump/MAGA fever may break not because we came back to the better angels of our national spirit, but because we are tired of being afraid and afraid of being poor.
Rodney W. Kennedy is a pastor and writer. He is the author of 11 books, including his latest, Dancing with Metaphors in the Pulpit.
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