WASHINGTON (RNS)—As the first Mormon selected by a major political party as its presidential candidate, will Mitt Romney’s barrier-breaking faith be a boon or bane to his White House campaign? Two studies on the question come to contradictory conclusions.
In both studies, people were given information about Romney and the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, then asked whether they would be more or less likely to vote for him.
Fifteen Mormons serve in the U.S. Congress. Pictured are Harry Reid, Tom Udall, Orrin hatch, Mike Lee and Mike Crapo.
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The first study, produced by three prominent political scientists, including two Mormons, finds Romney’s religion hampered his 2008 presidential run and may do so again this year.
But a second, conducted by the Washington-based Brookings Institution, calls such concerns “overblown” and suggests Romney’s Mormonism may actually help him court conservative voters.
So, what gives?
This much seems clear: Since 1967, nearly one in five Americans consistently have told Gallup pollsters they would not vote for a Mormon presidential candidate.
Meanwhile, more Americans are becoming aware of Romney’s religion: 48 percent know he’s a Mormon, up from 39 percent last November, according to the Pew Research Center.
Relentless media attention—exploring everything from Mormon undergarments to the church’s polygamist past—has introduced Romney’s faith to the wider public. The spotlight will intensify since Romney secured the GOP nomination.
But few Americans are personally well-acquainted with a Mormon, according political scientists David Campbell of the University of Notre Dame, John Green of the University of Akron and J. Quin Monson of Brigham Young University. Just 14 percent of Americans have a Mormon family member or close friend.
That could present obstacles for Romney, the political scientists argue in their paper, “The Stained Glass Ceiling: Social Contact and Mitt Romney’s ‘Religion Problem.’“
Mormons no longer are persecuted, as they were during the late 1800s, but their beliefs and proselytizing remain unpopular among many Americans, the scholars say. In addition, Mormons are isolated geographically in western states and socially insular, often marrying and making friends within the church.
In other words, they have built few social “bridges” to non-Mormons, with consequences for Romney’s campaign.
People who know a Mormon well were less likely to be dissuaded from supporting Romney by hearing negative information about his church, the scholars found. People with no personal exposure to Mormons (46 percent) were swayed by both positive and negative facts about the faith. And people who know a Mormon only in passing (40 percent) were more likely to be influenced by negative than positive depictions of the faith.
“It’s akin to having a Mormon colleague at work, and all you know about him is that he doesn’t go to happy hour after work with the rest of the office, and you think that’s kind of odd,” Monson said. When fed a negative nugget of information about Mormonism, it confirms a sense that something is amiss about Romney, said Monson, a Latter-day Saint himself.
The study was conducted in early 2008, during Romney’s first White House run. The scholars say it may also foretell his future.
“Given that the general perception of Mormons has not changed since 2008 and that there is no reason to think that Americans became more likely to have Mormons as close friends or family members since 2008,” the scholars write, “our results suggest that Romney’s religion will remain a potential political stumbling block.”
The Brookings study, however, found that a lot had changed in four year Matthew Chingos, a Brookings fellow, and Michael Henderson, a political scientist at Mississippi University, argue that even evangelicals who had rejected Romney during the 2012 primary now solidly support him.
“White evangelicals do not abandon Romney even when differences between their beliefs and his are emphasized,” the study says. “Thus, it appears that the concerns among the campaign watchers about Romney’s religion are misplaced.”
Chingos and Henderson acknowledge their results should not be considered definitive, because they were not based on a nationally representative sample.
But it’s well known that partisans develop more favorable impressions of their party’s nominee as the campaign continues, Chingos and Henderson note.
And politically conservative evangelicals and Romney are united now by opposition to President Obama. In the 2008 study, Romney was competing against social conservatives and fellow Republicans.
“The clear choice in November is between a president with whom they disagree, or Romney, who is Mormon, which they—in theory—don’t like,” Chingos said. In the end, theory yields to political reality, Chingos said.
Daniel Burke writes for Religion News Service.