Recently, the Rainer Research Group released a futurist study on what they believe to be 10 unexpected trends in church-life by the year 2020 (www.churchexecutive.com). In coming issues, I want to explore a few of those trends.
John Chandler
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Heterogeneity rising. As the younger generation ages, they will not be represented by the “homogeneous unit principal” that was championed in the 1970s by the church growth movement. (This descriptive principal states that we typically go to church with similar people, thus the best way to reach people is with others who are similar.)
Boomers began to change this thinking by valuing diversity. For those born after 1970, diversity (or heterogeneity) is normal. Rainer says, “In the future, homogenous units will still form — there’s a reason why people attend Star Trek conventions (though it is lost on me). People with common interests, characteristics, life stages and languages will still gravitate toward each other. The difference with the younger generation is that these divides will not be as distinct, specifically in ethnic terms. The United States will be minority white by 2042 — preschools much sooner, by 2021. The Millennial generation will gravitate toward heterogeneous churches because they represent what is normal in their generation.”
The diverse church will become the “new normal.” Personally, I like that — it reflects a day when God will be worshiped by “saints from every tribe and language and people and nation” (Revelation 5:9).
“Frequency of attendance” becomes a new measure (and continues to decline). The researchers note that church attendance might best be tracked by watching the trend of people phasing out of congregational life by attending less frequently. Decreasing frequency of attendance is a new key identifier for overall church decline. It has always been more helpful to track average weekly worship attendance rather than church “membership,” a term that has lost almost all meaning in most Baptist congregations. What is now becoming more important is tracking how frequently those who attend worship are there in a given month or year.
This is not mere legalism, but an indicator. Frequent church attendance doesn’t mean you are a disciple. But can you be a disciple if you show up once a month in worship and community?
Trending is by John Chandler, leader of the Spence Network, www.spencenetwork.equip.htm.