I write often about how politics is not the only thing to care about if you are a Christian. However, it is indeed one thing to care about, one very important thing.
I have found Dietrich Bonhoeffer’s guidance very helpful here. In his Ethics, Bonhoeffer distinguishes between what he calls the “ultimate” and the “penultimate”: the ultimate reality of God’s saving grace in Christ, and the penultimate realities of earthly life in which Christians are called to live responsibly. Politics and government belong to that penultimate realm.
“Penultimate” means next to ultimate, the one before the ultimate, and that’s not nothing. It means a very great deal.
David Gushee
In this post I want to offer a close analysis of the U.S. political situation, 40 days before the elections in November. My data is drawn from the most reputable polling sites and polling aggregators and analysts I can find. These include Nate Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” and Dan Pfeiffer’s “The Message Box” on Substack (paid subscriptions required for full data), the Real Clear Polling site, and The New York Times.
If you, like me, are utterly and unalterably opposed to Donald Trump and want him to be repudiated by the American people, the news is almost entirely very good right now.
Trump disapproval rating
Pfeiffer aggregates the polls to show Trump’s “approval rating is at an all-time low, and his disapproval is at an all-time high.” Pfeiffer averages current polls to get 60% disapproval, 37% approval, thus -23 overall. I saw a Reuters/Ipsos poll this week that had Trump’s approval rating at 32%. That is historically bad. (For comparison, Trump’s approval rating fell to roughly 30% to 34% in the immediate aftermath of January 6, 2021.)
Pfeiffer goes on to point out that Trump’s “strong approval” number among Republicans has slipped to under 50%, down from 70% on Election Day 2018, 2020 and 2024. This is further evidence that his base is, if not collapsing, at least weakening. Lower strong approval numbers tend to mean lower turnout on the part of formerly reliable voters. Conversely, Nate Silver reports that Trump’s strong disapproval number overall is 49.5%, while his strong approval number overall is 19.6%.
Silver finds Trump’s net approval rating on a range of issues has deteriorated or collapsed. For example, he is currently at -13 on immigration, -28.3 on trade, -32.1 on the economy, and -46.4 on inflation. Fully 59% of those polled oppose the Iran war, while only 33% approve.
Of course, Trump is not on the ballot in November. However, he has made every effort to make the November elections be about himself. “Pretend I am on the ballot,” he has said repeatedly. He might want to be cautious what he wishes for.
Certainly many Republican candidates are trying to create some distance between themselves and Trump, through media interviews, advertisements and their strategic absence from his convention in Dallas in early September.
“The polling numbers are catastrophic for the Republicans in any case.”
Congress
But the polling numbers are catastrophic for the Republicans in any case. As of now, Silver suggests there is a 90.8% chance the Democrats will take the House, with a current projected total of 236 seats to 199 for the Republicans. He now projects Democratic control of the Senate at a 69.3% chance, with 52 seats his current estimate for the Democrats.
Silver projects the Democratic Senate candidate will win in Iowa, Ohio, Texas (!), Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Georgia. Democrats are currently reaching/hoping/working to take Senate seats in Alaska, Kansas and possibly Nebraska (behind the independent candidate Dan Osborn). Some are even dreaming of South Carolina and Florida.
If Methodist pastor and Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton wins in Kansas — and he is close right now — it will be the first time Kansas has sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. The Democrats are seeing possible gains they could hardly have imagined a year ago.
Governors
And don’t miss the governor’s races. Just focusing on swing states or formerly Republican-leaning states, the Democrats are leading in Ohio, Georgia (!), Wisconsin, Alaska, Iowa, Oregon, Arizona and Michigan, are very close in Nevada and are surprisingly close in Florida, Kansas and Texas. If current projections hold, Silver sees 227 million Americans living in states governed by Democrats after these elections, and 116 million living in states governed by Republicans.
One crucial impact of Democratic control in swing states like Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin is it means the elections of 2028 in these closely contested states will be managed by people who have not been socialized into election denial and subversion.
Specific regions and populations have been so negatively affected by Trump decisions that support for him and his party has weakened dramatically. For example, the Iran war has driven up gas prices but especially diesel prices — the latter now averaging over $6.50 a gallon. This especially affects farmers and thus the voting in states like Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska.
Democrats are apparently already running ads warning Northern states about the brutal costs that will be coming for home heating this winter. Some of these voters already will be experiencing those costs in October.
Hispanic support for Trump has fallen sharply from its 2024 high, amid the draconian immigration policies of his administration. This undercuts the anticipated effects of gerrymandering the GOP undertook — at Trump’s request — in states like Texas.
The coming tsunami
Trump’s people can read the polls. They know the tsunami is likely coming. This helps to explain the efforts they have undertaken so far, and will likely continue to undertake, to suppress the vote, intimidate voters or try to challenge election results. The Democrats, election lawyers, civil society organizations and everyday voters will need to be vigilant and challenge every single effort to undermine the first and fundamental right in a democracy — to vote and to have one’s vote counted.
“Trump’s people can read the polls. They know the tsunami is likely coming.”
Assuming the election results are respected (and protected), 2027 will look very different in Washington. Trump will be staring down the barrel at a Democratic Party able to block any unwanted legislation, cut off funding for his Iran war debacle, prevent the appointment of MAGA judges and unqualified cabinet members, and investigate his and his administration’s misdeeds, graft and corruption.
The Democrats may decide to pursue not one but multiple impeachments, including of the president. This is more of a strategic decision than a debate about the merits, because in my view impeachments of multiple officers of this government are warranted. Still, they might decide their time would be better spent on detailed congressional hearings, on the investigation side and on a separate track of debating and passing (even if vetoed) robust legislation that can amount to a platform and agenda for governance if they take the White House in 2028.
This country needs two parties that believe in democracy and that put forward responsible candidates at every level of government. Trumpian corruption of the GOP for what now amounts to a generation means that party is pretty much going to have to start over. Will they? Will they flush this reactionary authoritarianism out of their system?
They will face this choice while in the political wilderness, as they are likely to lose power in many states and at the national level. If this does indeed happen, it will be a well-deserved outcome.
David P. Gushee serves as Distinguished University Professor of Christian Ethics at Mercer University, chair in Christian social ethics at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and senior research fellow at International Baptist Theological Study Centre. He is past president of the American Academy of Religion and Society of Christian Ethics. He also is author of 30 books, including Righteous Gentiles of the Holocaust; Kingdom Ethics; Defending Democracy from Its Christian Enemies; Changing Our Mind; and The Moral Teachings of Jesus.