According to the Cleveland Clinic website, arithmophobia is a negative response to numbers or numerical tasks that some people exhibit — a condition that evokes such reactions as chills, nausea, heart palpitations and dizziness.
I hope you are not one who struggles with this phobia.
For all of us, however, whether or not we suffer from arithmophobia, some of the numbers created by the Trump administration’s tariffs are both dizzying and chilling. A prime example is found in the Economic Uncertainty Index.
Richard Conville
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is a widely followed indicator of confidence in future business activity. A higher number indicates greater uncertainty and therefore lower confidence in future business activity. Fund managers — such as of your 401(k) — corporate CEOs and directors, Federal Reserve governors, business news reporters and the staff of the Wall Street Journal are the kind of people who closely follow the index.
The Index is based on (1) disagreement among economic forecasters, (2) the parts of the federal tax code that may be expiring, and (3) reports in major newspapers that include terms such as “uncertain,” “economy,” “Congress,” “White House” and “deficit.”
Important business decisions will not be made without a high level of confidence that customers will be there and that they will have the money to buy your products.
I first looked at the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index when I heard and read financial reports about the effects of high tariffs on stock market volatility. Out of curiosity, I checked out the Index for Jan, 1 through April 9 of this year to see what the numbers looked like early in Trump’s term. One of the first things I noticed was that most of the scores were below 600. I found that, during those 99 days, the Index was over 600 only 13 times. The first time was Jan. 12 when the Index was 678, and the last time was April 9 when the Index stood at 689. The high was 985 on April 5, and the low was 110 on Jan. 15.
So then I analyzed the preceding 99 days for comparison — Sept. 23, 2024, through Dec. 31, 2024 — to see what the Index showed in the waning days of the Biden administration. I discovered during that 99-day period, that the Economic Uncertainty Index did not top 600 a single time. In addition, during that period (of Biden’s term) the low was 31 on Sept. 29 and the high was 484 on Nov. 10.
“Trump’s presidency has so far given us a highly uncertain economic outlook.”
Trump’s presidency has so far given us a highly uncertain economic outlook. Since Inauguration Day Jan. 20, Trump’s high EUI (985) was more than double that of Biden’s high (484), and Trump’s low EUI (110) was more than three times higher than Biden’s low (31). Moreover, Trump’s Index has topped 600 a total of 13 times, while in the last 99 days of the Biden administration it never once topped 600.
Why are these numbers important to you? Because business activity slows when economic uncertainty increases. Let me repeat: “Important business decisions cannot be made (in a capitalist economy) without a high level of confidence that customers will be there and that they will have the money to buy your products.” These are important decisions that affect which stocks to include in your retirement portfolio, whether to start construction on a new (or expand an existing) manufacturing plant or whether to open a new coffee shop in your city or town.
In a slowing economy, workers are laid off, unemployment increases and wages stagnate. Cities, counties and states take in fewer tax dollars, and so fewer streets and highways get paved, fewer bridges are upgraded and the pay of teachers, police and fire personnel stagnates. That diminishes public safety and overall quality of life for all of us.
Trump’s obsession with high tariffs, plus his flicking them on and off as if they were a simple light switch, has cast a veil of extreme economic uncertainty over our nation and created chaos, many analysts argue.
Economic uncertainty does not help build a “more perfect union,” nor does it “provide for the general welfare,” nor does it enhance government “of the people, by the people and for the people.” Not a single American ideal is fostered by extreme economic uncertainty.
Rather, Trump’s actions so far have proved lethal to all our ideals — including democracy itself. This is unsustainable. It must end if we are to survive as a nation.
Richard Conville is professor emeritus of communication studies at the University of Southern Mississippi and a longtime resident of Hattiesburg where he is a member of University Baptist Church.