WASHINGTON — A new poll that shows Sen. Hillary Clinton drawing a large percentage of “born-again” voters is giving her campaign something to trumpet, but is also prompting questions: Did the pollster define born-again too broadly? And if so, are the results meaningful?
California-based researcher George Barna found that Clinton, a New York Democrat, leads among born-again voters at 20 percent, followed by Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., (18 percent) and former Republican Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (12 percent). No other candidate received double-digit support, and 30 percent of poll respondents were undecided.
The poll also found that 40 percent of born-agains likely to vote would choose the Democratic candidate in November, compared to 29 percent who favor a Republican nominee and 28 percent who are undecided.
The numbers would represent a seismic shift in presidential politics, signaling that Democrats are making serious inroads in their attempt to woo religious-minded voters away from the GOP.
They would also add a new dynamic to an ongoing tussle between Democrats and exit pollsters who ask Republican primary voters about their religious leanings, but don't ask the same questions of Democratic voters.
But some observers say Barna's definition of a born-again Christian — someone who has made a personal commitment to Jesus Christ and, based on a confession of sins, believes heaven awaits after death — may be too broad.
“That's a really broad measure,” said John Green, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life. “If you think about it, all kinds of Christians might be able to agree with that. Lots of people believe in an afterlife.”
At its broadest measure, the “born-again” category could include white Protestants (often reliable Republicans), Catholics (a frequent swing vote) or black Protestants (reliable Democrats).
Barna, who did not return calls for comment, said in a statement on Monday that Republicans will have a tough time reaching born-again voters.
“Given the large percentage of undecided voters, it is possible that the Republican candidate might eventually win a majority of the born-again vote,” he said. “However, it will not be easy to win them over.”
The Barna Group uses a narrower definition of “evangelical” in polling. Respondents — who are not asked to describe themselves as either “born-again” or “evangelical” — must meet Barna's born-again criteria as well as seven other categories to be counted as evangelicals.
Barna's figures have gotten attention, including from the Clinton campaign. Beliefnet. com's “God-o-Meter” called the findings “eye-popping,” and David Brody, a widely read correspondent for Pat Robertson's Christian Broadcasting Network, said the research confirms his detection of “a gradual shift of born-again Christians who have become more sympathetic to the Democratic Party.”
Mark Silk, a contributor to the “Spiritual Politics” blog on religion and the current election campaign, offered a more qualified analysis of the numbers.
“First, the born-again are not separated by race or ethnicity, and so include a lot of traditional Democratic voters, African-Americans especially,” Silk wrote as Americans across the U.S. voted in Super Tuesday primaries.
He added that a more accurate measure might be the missing religious questions in exit polls among primary voters.
“The bottom line: This is suggestive, but it would be really helpful if today's Democratic exit polls include the standard evangelical question.”
Meanwhile, Associated Baptist Press reported a Zogby International poll released Feb. 11 showed that about one-third of white evangelicals who voted in two Super Tuesday states voted in the Democratic primaries.
“The media is operating with an outdated script, and the experience I'm having on the road confirms the data,” said Jim Wallis, founder of the Sojourners/Call to Renewal movement. The Christian group fights poverty and war. He said that in recent speaking engagements at evangelical college and seminary campuses around the country he has seen far more enthusiasm for Democratic candidates than he has in years.
In 2000 and 2004, white evangelicals voted for President Bush by about a 3-to-1 margin.
“I would say that all the data, the Barna data, the Pew data, this data, shows that evangelicals are leaving the Religious Right in droves, and the Religious Right is being replaced by Jesus, and that's progress,” Wallis said.
ABP contributed to this story.